Currently through 30 games:

5.87 runs allowed per game * 162 games = 950 runs (+124 over 2007)

4.70 runs scored per game * 162 games = 760 runs (+38 over 2007)

124 - 38 = -86 runs differential over 2007

-86 = -8.6 wins

-94 losses in 2007 -8 more wins = -102 losses for 2008

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It’s not a pretty sight by any means and, no matter how you slice it and dice it, we’re currently on track to lose 10% more games than David Littlefield’s median of 91.5 games per year and the most since Tanner’s 1985 dismal Pirates.

I mentioned the other day it was very probable Maholm would take the mound feeling like his arm was falling off after being asked to throw a complete game.  How did I know that?  Because it happened last year - April 24th a complete game shutout in 99 pitches against the Astros.

Five days later he was mauled - 7 hits, six runs, and took a loss.

In fact, that early complete game seemed to set Maholm back six weeks. Over the next nine games he had a 5.98 ERA, pitched 52.2 innings, allowed 63 hits (33% for extra bases), and gave up 35 runs. 

Funny thing about it all, after that April 24th start and the subsequent six weeks it seemed to take  Maholm to recover, he then started ten games with a 3.72 ERA and a miniscule .796 OPS allowed.

But the Pirates didn’t heed what they had learned earlier that year - they had Maholm stretch out nine innings again in another complete game August 13th.

He made five starts the rest of the year with a 8.77 ERA allowing a cool 1.076 OPS along the way.  And, of course, was shut down with back problems just a couple of games after that August 13th start for a few weeks, made two starts, then shut down for the year.

Coincidence? Perhaps… perhaps.

I remember writing recaps of many of the games Maholm pitched after that April 24th start last year saying that ground balls had seeing eyes and little flares were killing him.

And that’s exactly what happened to him Saturday against the Nats. Well, to a degree, that is.

What killed him early was that 10 of the first 15 batters he faced all reached resulting in 5 runs. Sure, there were some errors and miscues in there - Maholm didn’t cover first on a double play resulting in a missed out, and Nady let a little grounder get past him he might have had a shot of nailing Lo Duca who was going first to third on him. But it was mostly Maholm’s lack of command and a few seeing eye hits that got him in trouble.

Then there was the sixth which buried him. The score was tied 5-5 when Pena tapped a little grounder up the third base line Paulino couldn’t get a handle on and he beat it out. Then after Maholm walked Belliard to put men at first and second and no outs, Russell brought out his hook and brought in sinkerballer Osoria.

Up to that point Osoria was in the top 15 in the NL for least amount of inherited runners scoring on him which was pretty impressive for him, but his luck finally ran out when Lopez hit a typical fly ball right to Nady who lost it in the sun loading the bases.

Then the unthinkable happened. Guzman, who had already homered in the game and was 2-3 with 3 rbis, was given a very fat first pitch up in the zone and he crushed it. And look where McLouth was playing in the shot below. And realize, he’s already on the move when that shot is taken having run quite a ways. The X is where the ball fell which was about 25′ from McLouth when it finally landed.

And two of Maholm’s runs scored, as did Lopez who reached on Nady’s fielding miscue. Those runs were the ones that beat us.

Brutal.

I mean, Guzman was so locked in during the game, how could Russell allow McLouth to be playing so shallow? Funny thing is, he’s run some balls down that deep before but certainly not playing in that close.

I’ll have to go back and check to be sure but I believe this is the 5th double or triple this year over McLouth’s head that emptied the bases. Granted, playing in is taking away a few cheap hits here and there but, man, when we give it up, we give it up in hordes.

The Bucs mounted a comeback and had the bases loaded in the 7th with no outs and managed to get just one run from it - Bautista’s sac fly. Paulino struck out on a pitch off the plate but he was holding the bat all the same and that was a huge blow, and then Mientz ground out to end the threat.

In the 8th we tried again when McLouth walked leading off, Gomez struck out, Sanchez singled, Bay struck out, then Nady hammered a double to right scoring the two runs.

Down a run in the 9th, Bautista popped out, Paulino walked, Morgan ran for him and stole second on the first pitch, Doumit flied out, and McLouth ground out leaving Morgan stranded at second.

Bottom line… 12th loss in the last 17 games and the third in the last five that had “underachived” stamped on the manager (placement of McLouth in the 6th).

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Looks like the front swept through pretty quick so no rainout saving grace for Snell Sunday. In fact, he’s going to be pitching with brisk winds blowing out so it could end up being another high scoring game.  Maybe he’ll fool us and toss a no-no?  We sure need it.

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Tyler Yates once again got lucky. He loaded the bases with a walk and then Boone smoked a line drive Bautista put a glove on.  The ball had double written all over it. This cat’s luck is bound to run out here shortly.

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Speaking of Bautista, he’s heated up into one of his hot streaks he manages a couple times per year and has been carrying the team with McLouth and Nady lately.

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What’s it going to take to get this ship back on track? 

Pitching.  Lots of pitching.

You’re witnessing right now what happens when a NLCD team attempts to outmash their opponents the AL way…  it doesn’t work, just like the Reds found out all those years.  You have to start with pitching and defense and then add some mash.

You have to make the same decision I said we had to make back in December - do you build around Snell, Gorzelanny, Capps, and Maholm, or do you deal them? I said back then, deal them. Huntington kept them and now none of them are going to get us a pot of gold right now so that debate has to end until they pick up their game.

You could say the same about LaRoche and Nady. Do you sign them for a few more years and hope to build around them, or do you deal them?  I said keep LaRoche in December and deal Nady giving the at bats to Doumit. Huntington kept them both and put Doumit behind the dish so he’s ahead of the game there since both Nady and Doumit have increased their values. But LaRoche has his head somewhere in China it seems.

Huntington knew he needed the arms to compete but they were our few good chips to get some decent young impact type players.

So what does he do now?

He bails by shutting down Gorzy as he’s done (God Bless Neal Huntington), he puts the best matchups together on paper he can for Maholm, Snell, and Duke and tries to build their values to deal them in July, and he pushes McLouth, Doumit, and Nady off the table as fast as he can while they are still hot and healthy.

Then he should stretch out Capps to get him in the rotation, start thinking about dealing Capps, Sanchez, Wilson, and Grabow down the line, and target some young draftees from 2006 and 2007 that can impact his farm system to build around McCutchen as his centerpiece.

But he has to think young arms first - not mash. He has to take some chances and try to get projectable young guns he can keep around for awhile.

And let’s face it, there’s virtually no worthwhile pitching available in the free agent market the next two years we’ll be able to afford on a 100 loss club so forget that route.

Lastly, I think Huntington should be thinking ahead to signing some quality men for his farm, scouting team, assistant GM’s, and, if I had my way, field staff nearly every slot from AA to Pittsburgh. Since he doesn’t have a need to pay for players, at least he can pay ridiculous market prices offering deals that can’t be turned down to get some quality developmental help and field staff.

Perry Hill (is he finally out of the Marlins trap contract?) and Tom Kotchman are two guys I’d target.

Right now we are already 17% into this new regimes three-year deal and all we’ve done is go backwards so far. We need a boost in the as*.

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Word on the street is that Sean Burnett is being recalled and Meek is being sent back to the Rays. Well, I suppose you could say that’s a good thing since we have so many Ryan Vogelsong clones but I hate to see the Pirates give up Meek in a 100 loss season while someone like Rivas remains on the 25-man.  

I mean, just because we have another square peg trying to fit into the round hole in the pen doesn’t mean we should give up on projectability. That’s just nuts. At the same time, all the Pirates pro scouts have seen Meek good enough by now to know if he’s worth it or not so, since they might be cutting him loose, I assume they don’t think so. I’ll quietly disagree.

Now I have never been a Burnett believer in his role as a starter, and if he has the same hittable stuff he had back then today in relief, then Huntington better pick his spots to insert Burnett and then try to deal him for somebody asap.

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Jack Wilson’s return has been pushed back yet again. I mean, does that even surprise anyone? You go Jack.

Don’t forget I told you May 15th - June 1st is what I heard three weeks ago. Keep that in your mind.