2008 Draft: Bucco Blog Recommends..
By Jake • Jun 4th, 2008 • Category: Feature Story
Aaron Crow.
1. Aaron Crow
2. Pedro Alvarez
3. Brian Matusz
In 2007, Bucco Blog recommended that the Pirates take Rick Porcello and he’s now rated the 21st prospect in the nation.
Crow won’t be so lucky. He’s almost certain not to be on anyone’s board in the top 5 for reasons unlike Porcello’s free fall last year - signability. No, Crow just doesn’t project out in most scouts eyes leaving the better hitters high above him on the board. Even Matusz has passed him on nearly every board.
But for the same reasons I recommended Porcello last year, there’s just something there that screams take me with this young man. I think he has the possibility of being a true NLCD ace down the road if his mechanics are cleaned up and he works with a plus instructor. And there’s no question that top of the order pitching is non-existant in our system. Throw in the runs scored study I did showing bats don’t correlate with wins like pitching does, and, well,
I recommend Crow.
The Pirates, however, have no desire to take Crow. Like everyone else, they see an impact bat with Alvarez. Yet it’s ironic that Pirates ownership is going to be hailed as a savior by taking the very type of player they failed to protect in 2003 in Aramis Ramirez. Back then ownership refused to step to the plate and infuse cash to keep paychecks current and the result was that Ramirez and his future big salary was dealt.
Funny thing about that, less than 6 months later the Pirates received a windfall in revenue sharing which, not only could have paid Ramirez’s salary for the next few years, but a couple of other players as well. But the Pirates instead paid down their internal self-created debt and the fans lost their power corner impact bat which was never replaced.
So when 2:25 PM rolls around Thursday and you hear the Pirates selection, don’t forget Robert and Ogden Nutting were responsible for Ramirez departing as they now spend just a few of the many tokens received in revenue sharing the last few years on this pick.
As fans, we can only hope and pray the Nuttings don’t screw us with this Ramirez too.
Jake is no longer contributing at Bucco Blog, a fan blog covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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I like Aaron Crow but not as much as Jake. Before this season he was a middle of the road first round pick at best. He had allowed more hits when you combined the 2006 and 2007 seasons than innings pitched. He generally struck out around 6 guys per 9 over that two year span.
However, things clicked for him this year while his hits allowed are down and his strike out rate is WAY up (10.6 k/9). He has three plus pitches and touches the upper 90’s on occasion. However, he just isn\’t worthy of the #2 pick.
The agruement of who is better between him and Brian Matusz won’t be answered for a couple of years because they are very different pitchers.
I just think there is going to be a couple of quality high school pitchers available in the second round that are really going to help this club in 5-6 years.
lets hope and pray tonight that the pick is pedro Alvarez he seems like the perfect match for the bucooss. a left handed power hitting third basemen from the hot corner that the bucos really need. Alvarez would be a great bulding block with Mccuchen, Pearce,Mclouth, Doumit, and Walker if he ever makes it. Looks like pearce is going to be are starting first basmen again laroche isnt getting it done im a laroche fan but time for pearce to take over soon. So maybe bucos can keep Nady and just trade Bay for a few good starting pitchers.
Lets hope tomorrow we are all celebrating Alvarez being a pittsburgh pirate!!!!!!!!
Ray - agreed. There are some very projectable arms in the high school class and they almost all have a sign on them that says “I’m a signability problem.” But I think the better ones will be gone before we get to #48 leaving us having to pick from college relievers who can get up to Pittsburgh in a hurry.
Ryan said: “Lets hope tomorrow we are all celebrating Alvarez being a pittsburgh pirate!!!!!!!!”
I hear your excitement Ryan. I even feel it. I hope you get the present you want. But to many fans, Alvarez will always signify the Nutting’s complete and utter disregard for the fanbase/organization with their actions/inactions back in 2003.
were the nuttings the majority owner back in 2003? wasnt mcclatchy at some point the majority shareholder? If it was the nuttings were the majority then, shame on them, but i look at them going with alvarez , and not being afraid to pony up the $…*better late than never.
Jake, i was just over at Baseball Prospectus reading Goldstein\’s mock draft. He has the Rays taking Posey, the Pirates taking Tim Beckham and Alvarez going to KC.
But he has Crow slipping down to the 11th spot to the Rangers. I really can\’t see him falling that far down to Texas. I was curious if you read the article and what are your thoughts about his mock draft. I personally think its a little off, but who knows, it all depends on who TB takes.
Mike
Mike - Goldstein is like everyone else - we’re all guessing. I’ll be very surprised if the Rays pass on Beckham or Matusz and take Posey but considering the Rays want to expand their market around Florida, maybe they feel he’ll sell tickets too? I do know the Rays brass has been all over Alvarez, Beckham, and Matusz - my guess is they take one of the three. I had heard Alvarez just a week ago.
This draft is pretty mild after Alvarez, in my opinion, and even he doesn’t project out like we’d like to see with the #2 pick. Crow wants too much money and that’s why he’s falling - and he’ll continue to fall. But I’d take him.
Jason - the Nuttings were in a power play for control starting late 2002. Kevin pawned his second board vote to Ogden Nutting in 2003 after we heard he couldn’t pay the mortgage on his home and the bank started foreclosure paperwork. KM was the majority owner but Nutting had pledged shares he was buying and controlled the majority votes on the Board.
What hgh school arms do you thin the Pirates hsould look at in the draft. The one I would really like to see is Daniel Webb. The only problem is he might want to go to college.
Joseph - there are a lot of good articles out there on prep arms. I put some links below.
A couple I like are Mike Montgomery at Hart HS in CA - 6′5″ southpaw who many believe is better than Gerrit Cole (btw, don’t be too surprised if Cole isn’t available at #48 based on signability issues); Ross Hales at Barber Hills HS in TX is another tall southpaw who can deal; I saw the younger Maz watching Brett Moorhouse earlier this year - Indian River HS - but he’s a youngster (freshman or soph I think) and I think Maz was watching Tony Ferrara outside Tampa at Riverview HS. There’s a few outside the obvious.
John Sickles has one at http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/5/15/509937/high-school-pitchers-of-in
MaxPreps profiles a few and has some good stats: http://www.maxpreps.com/
Rivals shows off a few at: http://rivals100.rivals.com/viewrank.asp?SID=1185&Year=2008&ra_key=2096
If they do take Alvarez, how will this effect Neil Walker? Will his bat demand a place in the lineup or will he project to be a bench player? Is it too late to move him back to catcher or possibly move him to 1B?
Yes, good pitching is the best way to build a winning franchise. However, the history of pitchers panning out in the 1st round isn\’t great. Especially for this franchise. When you are throwing #2 money at someone, you had better hope that they end up producing in the bigs. Then take some chances on young arms in the next few rounds, this seems like a good gamble. I think that you should adjust your graph by incorporating the probability of major league success based on the average rates of the past.
Posey is rumored to be asking for $12 million, which is clearly an overshoot even as a starting point by his agents. Wonder if that shakes up the draft a bit. I would be surprised if he fell out of the top 7, who knows what he is really trying to get by floating that demand out there.
A couple other HS pitchers that probably won\’t be there in Round 2 that I really like are Ross Seaton from Texas, Robbie Ross and Brett DeVall from Kentucky.
Seaton has a nice fastball that sits in the mid 90\’s and has pretty good command. He already has a plus second pitch and he has a good frame. (110 k\’s to 7 walks)
Ross is a lefty with a good fastball. He is smaller than Seaton but has a lot of room to still develope. (73 k\’s to 6 walks)
DeVall is probably my favorite of these three. Don\’t be surprised if he goes in the 20\’s ahead of some other names being thrown around. He is a tall lefty, with a good fastball and a couple of good secondary pitches already. He also has great command. (140 k\’s to 21 walks)
There is a very good chance they are all gone but who knows. I agree with Jake that there is a good chance they are all gone and signability is always an issue with a borderline first round high school pitcher but I say if one of these guys is there throw a ton of money at him and take him.
I agree that taking a college reliever is a good move in the second round as well. There is a TON of very good relievers who have very good track records. Some of these guys could be in the big leagues in September of 2009
Also, look for the Pirates to draft a college first baseman between Round 3-7. There are a few really good power hitters out there and we don’t have many in the organization.
I have a feeling we will also see a lot of power arms coming our way
Not really draft related, but Lincoln appears to be coming along. Is it realistic to think he could be moving up the ladder quickly? A move to Lynchburg or Altoona doesn\’t seem unrealistic does it?
The upsurge is Posey\’s asking price, as well as Crow\’s, will it cause Alvarez to up his demands? Seeing Posey and Crow up their asking prices doesn\’t seem to make Alvarez\’s so out of line.
Love the Scheppers pick