I was going to just post this on my blog, but I figured I’d get more readers here. I know this is supposed to be a Pirates site, but hey, we’re all baseball fans right??1.

New York Mets – This team could be in trouble in a couple of years, as guys like Luis Castillo, Carlos Delgado, and Moises Alou are already in the declines of their careers. However, powered by Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran, the Mets most definitely have enough firepower to support their newly improved pitching staff. Wright is due for a decline in performance according to this Chris Jaffe piece, but odds are this line-up will still produce like an above average NL line-up, which will be enough.

Obviously, the big story for the Mets is the acquisition of ace Johan Santana, who solidifies a shaky ’07 rotation. At this point in his career, Pedro Martinez is as good a number 2 as is out there, so long as he stays healthy, while John Maine and Oliver Perez are good middle-to-back end guys. Either Orlando Hernandez or Mike Pelfrey will do just fine as the fifth guy.

The bullpen is another strength. Billy Wagner is as good as they get, while Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, and Scott Schoeneweis will do a good job of holding leads in innings 6-9 when necessary.

There are some risks on this squad. What if Alou, Delgado, or Castillo hit the age wall this year? What if Pedro can’t stay of the DL? What if Johan’s ’06 min-collapse was a sign of things to come? There are reasons to be pessimistic; I’m just not buying any of them.

2. Philadelphia Phillies – Easily the most dangerous line-up in the NL, the Phightin’ Phils will put runs on the scoreboard. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins are all among the pre-season favorites for the MVP award, while Pat Burrell, Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz, and Shane Victorino all at least have the ability to produce. According to the same Jaffe article linked above, the Phils were the 2nd unluckiest club in baseball in the home-run department – which means they should score more in ’08. Scary stuff.

Cole Hamels pitched like an ace in ’07, and Brett Myers and Kyle Kendrick proved to be good middle of the rotation options. Unfortunately for the Phils, the 4 and 5 spots will go to some combination of Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, and JD Durbin, none of whom posted a sub-5 ERA in 2007.

The bullpen has some depth in JC Romero and Tom Gordon, but Brad Lidge, who was a question mark to begin with, just underwent knee surgery that will keep him out another 3-6 weeks. He seems much more like a project reliever than a guy you’d want to stick in the closers role, but right now he’s the only good bet the Phils have. That’s discouraging.

Picking the Mets over the Phils here is a tough call, and I could very easily go the other way, but the Mets were the better team for much of 2007, and with the addition of Johan and a healthy Pedro for an entire season, I think they keep the Phils line-up in check and take the division by a slim 2 game margin.

3. Atlanta Braves – The Braves are closer to being a competitive team than I think some people realize, and though I think facing the Phils and Mets 20+ times will keep them from serious Wild-Card consideration, this will be a fun team to watch in ’08. Mark Teixeira, Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, and Jeff Francoeur all swing big sticks, while Kelly Johnson and Matt Diaz are no slouches at the plate either. The Braves finished 3rd in the NL in runs scored in ’07 with 810, and odds are good they’ll put up 800-830 this year, even with the departure of Andruw Jones.

The Braves rotation is actually shaping up very nicely. While neither John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, nor Tom Glavine is a really bona-fide ace, they proved a solid 1-2-3 punch that is probably as good as any in baseball. The team is hopeful though realistic about Mike Hampton’s chances for success, and Chuck James, Jair Jurrjens, Jo-Jo Reyes, and Jeff Bennett should round out a good rotation.

Raphael Soriano seems ready to break out as a worthy MLB closer, but if he isn’t, Peter Moylan and Mike Gonzalez are chomping at the bit to take his spot. Those three should be the anchors or the pen, but after that things could get dicey. Manny Acosta looked good in 23.2 IP last season, and if he can produce outs in the 6th and 7th innings, this pen could be enough to boost the Braves into contention, though I think they’re still a big bat or a shut-down closer short.

4. Florida Marlins – The Marlins sans Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis could be a pleasant surprise in ‘08, as they have plenty of young talent. Then again, they could also completely collapse without the two remaining pieces from the 2003 World Championship squad. Hanley Ramirez is the best offensive shortstop in baseball, and though he may not stick at short long-term due to range concerns, he is undoubtedly a one-man, run-producing machine. Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, Josh Willingham, and Jeremy Hermida are all still relatively young and have some pop, but beyond Ramirez, there are really no big, consistent bats to be found.

The rotation is chopped full of young guys who could become studs or could become flops. The oldest starter besides Mark Hendrickson is 27 year-old Sergio Mitre, and guys like Scott Olsen, Andrew Miller, and Rick VandenHurk could put their ’07 struggles behind them and become a formidable set of pitchers, but that’s yet to be determined.

Kevin Gregg was a pleasant surprise in ’07, converting 32-of-36 save opportunities, though he was prone to some late game collapses. Justin Miller, Matt Lindstrom, and Taylor Tankersley looked good in ’07, and with a repeat performance, the pen could help the Fins win a couple more games in ’08, though the team probably won’t surpass 75 victories.

5. Washington Nationals – It’ll be a 4-way scramble between the Nats, Bucs, Astros, and Giants for next year’s first round draft pick, and the Nats are my early favorite. This team is in full on rebuilding mode, and beyond 3B Ryan Zimmerman, there aren’t too many sure things on this squad. Willy Mo Pena and Lastings Milledge both have loads of talent, and given the chance to play everyday, they could both prove to be solid MLB outfielders. Austin Kearns is consistent, though lacks a real impressive ceiling, while Dmitri Young, Ronny Belliard, Christian Guzman, and Paul Lo Duca are all just fill-ins at this point of their careers.

The rotation is a mess, lacking a single guy with significant MLB starting experience. This squad could be good in a couple of years, as Sean Hill, John Patterson, John Lannan, Tyler Clippard, and others all have potential to be good middle-to-top end guys, but the starting five will be atrocious as they struggle through the offensive heavy NL East.

Chad Cordero is a defining September performance away from elite closer status, while Jon Rauch, Luis Ayala, and Saul Rivera did a nice job in ’07. The pen won’t be a major weakness for the Nats, but it won’t even be close to enough to help this club win more than 65 games in ’08.