Over the last three years, the Pirates have averaged 67.3 wins which was 13.7 wins short from the average MLB team of 81 wins. Ask any fan what the problem is and they will quickly tell you - we need more offense.
Sure enough, the average MLB team scored 769 runs last three and the Pirates averaged scoring 698.. a 71 run difference. The average MLB team allowed 769 runs scored last three and the Pirates were at 804.. a 35 run difference.
Add the Pirates offense and defensive runs up and we see we were 106 per year short on average.
No matter if we use the expected Pythagorean winning percentage, or if we use the actual 9.5 runs per game equals one win method, the Pirates cleanly came up -11.1 wins short of expected wins on average the last two years and were just plain unlucky on the rest of the losses (-2.6 actual, -2.4 Pythagorean).
So on the surface it would seem Pirates’ fans are right - our offense has been two-thirds of our problem.
The next question you could ask any Pirates’ fan is to mention what component of the Pirates franchise is in the best shape and they will quickly answer starting pitching. Right? The franchise’s public relations department has fed us all starting pitching fortune cookies for three solid years now like this one: they are a homegrown group that can only get better over time.
But are they getting better?
Let’s start with the basics. The chart below compares the quality of hitters faced over the last three years between Pirates pitchers and the MLB median in two pitching classes: those pitchers who threw at least 30 or more innings in any given year, and those who threw at least 130 innings in any of the three years.
Here we can see that, overall, our 30+ inning pitchers have faced very similar batters to the MLB average club. However, those who tossed 130 or more innings had a much easier road than the average MLB club in comparison.
back to the future part iii download
And that’s where I’m going to leave you until I pick up this series tomorrow, because..
–
The Pirates rumor mill is kicking into high gear again. Snell is going no less than three places, Bay two others, Nady potentially two, Doumit rumors won’t die, Marte is all but packing his bags one team thinks, and even McLouth is back on the radar screen.
Now I stopped early on the first part of the above series because I wanted to slowly lay solid groundwork for every Pirate fan to understand why the Pirates need to be folding and not holding any player they can deal as these rumors start to surface. Right now Blanton and a few others are in the media’s eyes but that’s about to change.
Now I’m not advocating selling 30% short, but no matter if we deal today, next July, or next winter, and regardless how most the players perform, we’re still going to be selling short.
Terry
on Feb 9th, 2008
@ 1:30 am:
I\’m not getting my hopes up again on a Bucs deal…I\’ve heard your comments over and over again about deals about to get done, and I\’ve gotten my hopes up over and over for the Bucs to make a move, and they haven\’t. I\’ll believe it when I see it.
paulcnewmie
on Feb 9th, 2008
@ 1:38 am:
You mentioned one team interested in Snell as a closer, the Cubs I think. How do you see his value, higher as potential closer or middle of the rotation starter? Has he been working on a third pitch or is the bullpen calling for him? I hope the Dodgers and Rockies are two of the three teams in on Snell.
Jake
on Feb 9th, 2008
@ 1:55 am:
Terry - rumors are just that.. rumors. Names weren’t just flying off the shelf here, they have been flying off the shelf everywhere. Keep up with the series I’m slowly unfolding because I’m going to expose a few shocking things few people know.
paul - First off, the Cubs weren’t interested in him as a closer. One person said he wouldn’t mind seeing him AS the team’s closer.
Snell will remain a starter as long as he’s effective. Nobody is going to push him into a relief role while he can eat innings - it would horribly devalue him.
Tom P
on Feb 9th, 2008
@ 4:58 pm:
Shouldn’t you be using NL average instead of MLB average in your analysis of the quality of hitters faced over the last three years?
Steve
on Feb 9th, 2008
@ 5:17 pm:
Howdy!
Many so-called experts last year have felt that Doumit’s bat could help the Buccos offense, assuming he stays healthy (I know, I know…). Do you think he would help the offense significantly as a backup catcher or OF, with 350-400 ABs?
Just wondering…
Jake
on Feb 9th, 2008
@ 6:37 pm:
Tom — no, I don’t think so. If we want to start thinking about competing, there’s no reason to look at half the glass.
Steve — Doumit vs Paulino over 400 AB? You, of course, answered your own question - Doumit has only achieved a 400 AB season once in his pro career (A+) so this is a moot issue.
That being said, I think Paulino and Doumit would trend very similar the first year, maybe even two, as Doumit would fatigue early from catching the 900 innings behind the dish. I don’t think the “experts” considered how demanding it is for a receiver their first two years of full-time work. Great question.
Allan
on Feb 9th, 2008
@ 9:50 pm:
Jake puts slips of paper in a baseball cap, each slip containing the name of a Pirate player. In another cap, each slip contains the name of a team. He draws three or four slips a week from each cap, and that\’s the latest \
Tom P
on Feb 10th, 2008
@ 3:42 am:
Even though the average quality of hitters faced in the NL is lower than MLB? Especially for the starters? I’m not sure it would make a big enough difference, but you would think the average of an NL pitcher would be a little lower when compared to the rest of the league, which would include AL pitchers who instead face a DH instead of the opposing starter.
Greg
on Feb 10th, 2008
@ 9:18 am:
Jake , Please don\’t start on your stupid rumor predictions again… I laugh every time I read one of your…. \
Greg
on Feb 10th, 2008
@ 9:21 am:
stupid prdictions… Give it a rest , will ya????
Jake
on Feb 10th, 2008
@ 5:56 pm:
“but you would think the average of an NL pitcher would be a little lower when compared to the rest of the league”
great critical thinking Tom. But don’t forget, there are 16 NL clubs pulling the median down too. Look at this way.. take 8 players hitting .280 and one player hitting .120, then multiply that times 16 clubs. Then compared that to 14 clubs with 9 players hitting .280. You will see the AL is actually 7% short overall, even though the AL median BA is .018 points higher.
So, sure, the opponent BAA is going to be higher for AL pitchers, but it’s all relative.
More importantly for me in this series is for the fans to see what it will take for this roster to be an absolute 81 win club across the game.
Good stuff.
Jake
on Feb 10th, 2008
@ 5:56 pm:
hey Greg - I’m glad I’m making someone laugh! Cheers.
Rob Layton
on Mar 25th, 2008
@ 8:00 pm:
We need a committment to a winning team from ownership.