Yesterday we closed Part I of this series knowing that the Pirates averaged winning 13.7 fewer games than the MLB average team (81 wins) over the last three years, that our offense was short an average of 71 runs scored each of those years while our pitching and defense was short 35 runs allowed per year (106 runs total), and that our pitching staff faced a tick easier opponent in the box from the average MLB pitching staff based on BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS seen.

As you probably know, baseball is a game that is heavy in trends. For instance, in 2006 there were 5,386 MLB home runs that left the yard, and in 2007 there were just 4,957, about the same as the 5,017 in 2005. So looking at a three year block for trends isn’t perfect science by any means, but it does provide us snapshots which is what we need since our core pitching is young anyway.

To gauge those snapshots, I compared the 2007 MLB median to the 2005 MLB median in many of the basic pitching components and then did the same for the Pirates in the chart below.

For instance, the 2007 MLB median ERA trended 4.2% higher than from 2005 while the Pirates ERA trended 11.3% higher. The Pirates percentage difference from MLB across that trend was +7.1% which had a numerical difference of 0.21 ERA - 4.64 PIT vs. 4.43 MLB.

I think it’s important to stress here that 68% of all innings pitched in 2007 (979.2 of 1447.2) were tossed by pitchers we now consider our “core” group of young arms. In 2005 that figure was only 16% of the innings pitched. So while the 2005 group was an older and more experienced group, it also included Duke, Maholm’s, Gonzo’s, and Dave Williams fine performance years too.

Therefore, I’m not comparing apples to apples, especially for the Pirates. But that’s exactly my intention because the 2005 year was a 769 runs allowed year and the first plateau that the current group needs to reach - a 10% improvement.

Now let’s take a quick look at the above chart to see how far this group needs to go to reach that plateau. Obviously ERA needs to fall and that logically is only going to occur if they reduce the number of hits allowed which is very high.

It is nice to see that the current group is tracking well on reducing walks allowed, and we can see our park factor (and Tracy’s ‘play no-doubles’ defensive scheme) coming in to play some with the lower home runs and triples. You have to wonder how much these pitchers H/9 would reduce with a speedier outfield playing in a bit more? I’m guessing as much as 40%.

But the telltale line is the one that reads BABiP.. trending nearly 9% higher in 2007 from 2005 and still more than 6% higher than the MLB median of .300 during the period. THAT is a problem. In fact, the Pirates median BABiP was .320 in 2006 and 2007, so it didn’t budge a bit. The key to the success of the 2005 staff was that they were below the MLB median of .295.

Ian Snell is considered by most Pirates’ fans to be the teams best pitcher and he reduced his BABiP from .323 in 2006 to .312 in 2007. That’s a nice drop but, unfortunately, both years were well above the MLB median.

Plus, remember yesterday where I showed you our pitching staff has faced a tick easier opponent in the batter’s box than the average MLB pitching staff? Snell had it even easier at .257/.328/.404/.732. And even worse, Snell’s career home BABiP is .325, albeit it dropped to .316 in 2007.

Store all that away in your memory bank along with this tidbit - because Snell doesn’t have a changeup or splitter worth talking about, left hand batters rake him (.800 OPS and .321 BABiP in near equal AB from the left side in 2007). Teams now know how to beat Snell - stack their lefty bats against him.

So is Snell getting better? Debatable. If he is, it’s negligible, although his ERA says he clearly is thanks in part to a reduction in opponent’s componet stats facing him and a lot of luck. He is a textbook example of a sell high candidate.

Then there is Tom Gorzelanny - the Pirates second best pitcher in some eyes. To sabermetric types, he is the Pirates best arm.. by far. His BABiP last year hovered right around .300 despite a significant extra workload, his K/9 remains healthy from the left side, he has more than two plus pitches, and he’s still young. Gorzelanny is exactly the kind of arm the Pirates want to lock up for years and years as long as he stays healthy.

And that might not be easy unless Huntington gives him significant rest this year.

Paul Maholm has also done a good job in reducing his BABiP last two, although like Snell he is still well above the MLB median and that’s also of concern. Knowing his arm was a bit toasted last year, 2008 will be a defining year for him. You can also add Morris and Duke to the list of arms we have that are throwing well above the MLB median BABiP which, to me, is one of the most important stats there is.

As for the relief pen, there is nobody to talk about but Capps, although Grabow and his higher than MLB average BABiP has been luckier than one could expect.

So, is our pitching staff really getting better? Hardly. Other than Capps and Gorzelanny who have had significant improvements in their respective roles, everybody else is really average or below average on the staff. As mentioned above, Snell is debatable but, to his credit, has gotten the job done.

Should the fans expect this current “core” to ever achieve a 7% improvement across the board we need (ERA) just to get to the MLB median? While not impossible, it is highly improbable (r=.037 based on historical stats going back to 1954).

Next up, the offense.