Bucs blowout AA’ish pitcher
By Jake • May 2nd, 2008 • Category: Jake's Take
The Bucs broke out their bats against twenty-three-year-old John Lannan who is essentially a AA pitcher rushed to the bigs in 2007 after being drafted out of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference in the 11th round of 2005.
Lannan started the game with command problems and by the third was throwing watermelons up to the plate. After everyone got a look at him one time through the order, the Bucs batted around in the third starting with Nate McLouth and ending with Dumatrait grounding out. In between, six runs scored on just four hits - McLouth’s double, Sanchez strike out, a walk to Bay, a single by Doumit, a wild pitch, a Nady single, Mientz ground to short but Lopez dropped the relay so everyone was safe, then the big blow was when Bautista went yard.
As I watched the game I kept saying to myself the game reminded me of a spring training game where a club puts a guy on the mound to get a little experience under his belt. And, just like we did all spring to those type of AA types, we blew him off the map.
The rest of our game offensively isn’t relevant since the Nats put more garbage on the mound and we took them apart as well.
What is relevant is Dumatriat’s performance. He started the game throwing his fairly straight heat and getting away with it. If I had to venture a guess, I’d say the young man was actually overthrowing as he had very little movement on the pitch until he took speed off. Still, he threw mostly a plus fastball with average movement and a few sliders that broke off average to plus at times. His change is a below average pitch.
And as you would expect against a guy throwing mostly heaters, the Nats got down to business their second time through the order on him as well. He pitched to one batter in the 5th - Lopez the Nats leadoff man - and was removed at the 66 pitch count mark allowing him a single.
In all, Dumatrait saw 19 batters, 17 at bats, allowed 6 hits (3 singles, 3 doubles), 1 walk, 1 sac fly, and 4 runs. His stats on the outing: .353/.368/.529 allowed and a 9.00 ERA.
Now if we add Dumatrait’s work to JvB’s work since Morris was released we get:
.346 BA
.484 OBP
.500 SLG
.984 OPS0-1 in 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 4 BB, 7 K, 13 men on base out of 26 AB, 13 total bases
8.53 ERA
Which is, of course, a sliver of a tick better where Morris was at.
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The final score might have been 11-4, but hidden under all the piling on the Pirates did was the fact John Russell again refused to play small ball early in the game and it cost us two runs.
In the first inning McLouth was hit by a pitch and Sanchez was asked to sacrifice. He then hit into a double play. All things being equal, if he had moved McLouth to second with a bunt, McLouth would have easily scored on Bay’s single. Instead of the score being 1-0 Pirates, it was still tied 0-0 after 1.
In the second inning Nady walked and then Mientz wasn’t asked to sacrifice him over. Instead, he flew out to left. Assuming Nady is at second on a successful sacrifice, Gomez then singled to right which would have moved Nady to third and then Bautista’s fly out to right would have scored him. Again, instead of being up 2-0, we were still tied 0-0 after 2.
The third inning started with the McLouth double and Sanchez again wasn’t asked to sacrifice and he grounded out to third leaving McLouth at second. After Bay walked, Russell rolled the stupidity dice on a 1-2 count to Doumit by calling for a hit-and-run and Doumit flared one just out of the reach of the second baseman. If he had caught it, it would have been an easy double play and the inning over. But as luck would have it, Doumit’s flair hit the ground and one run scored and that was what took Lannan out of the game mentally.
But more importantly to me was, again, that was three straight innings the leadoff man was on base where Russell failed to execute small ball, and we lost two runs because of it. And when he did execute the hit-and-run in the third, it was on a 1-2 count and Doumit’s flair was one foot away from ending the inning.
The fourth was the same, although by then we were up 6-1. McLouth led off with a single and Sanchez, once again batting in the number two hole, was not asked to sacrifice and instead struck out.
In two of the last four games (April 29th and May 2cd), the Pirates had their leadoff man on base nine times in close games and only one of them eventually scored. When you consider the base run state with a man at second and one out scores 40% of the time, that’s -2.6 runs just from that one managerial statistic alone. However, all things being equal in the three games, we should have had five runs on the board, not 1, so we are -4 runs, or -2 runs per game.
While we did win one of the two games (tonight’s blowout), we lost the other game by one run.
Still, that’s one hell of a lot of runs for a manager to be putting his team behind the eight-ball. And hey, throw in Thursday’s ridiculous second inning infield playing in decision and you have two games out of the last four played the Pirates kept close but lost because of managerial incompetence.
That’s not good.
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I was pleasantly surprised watching Doumit behind the plate with Dumatrait. He did a good job and I especially liked the fact he seems to be taking more of a leadership role on the diamond with his staff.
What I didn’t like to see was Doumit shaking his head at the home plate ump’s called strike out of the zone decision while batting. I think he needs to realize building relationships with the umpires is more important than trying to show them up if he’s going to continue catching.
Still, a good job framing, blocking, and handling Dumatrait.
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I keep telling myself Nady is due for a turndown just like I say that about McLouth but both just keep raking. Nady’s work has been especially important because it’s been a lot of high leverage “clutchy” type of production which is unlike previous years. That drives up his value, as well as the fact he’s doing it against both right and left handers.
Now this presents a problem for Huntington because the other clubs know Nady as a fader as the season goes on. So the longer Huntington is unable to get a deal together for him, the lower his value is going to go unless Nady happens to halt the slide this year and Huntington deals him in July.
But if Nady starts cooling after May, other teams are going to make Huntington pay the price for waiting so he’s better off making the deal right now and getting all he can.
The same could be said to be true about McLouth knowing a few teams still want a center fielder leadoff guy. McLouth has shown he isn’t going to be as streaky this year so now is the time for Huntington to jump dealing him before he does regress.
I honestly think waiting for July gets a lower return for both these guys, but that’s the gamble Huntington has to decide on.
And I guess we can now conclude that the Jim Tracy/Jeff Manto “hit the ball on the ground” leadoff hitter theme is now officially dead in Pittsburgh? Mr. McLouth says, thank you.
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I wonder what would happen if a very good hitting instructor worked with Jason Bay’s swing mechanics? He rolls over everything soft away and he can’t catch up to anything fast inside unless he’s guess hitting on the pitch, which he’s been doing a lot of the last two years.
Let’s be honest, Gerald Perry did wonders with Bay in the little time he was around him and Bay hasn’t had anyone even close to Perry’s abilities since. It makes you wonder if the Pirates might be better off holding on to Bay this year and then trying to hire a plus-plus hitting coach offseason to work with Bay from December on.
I don’t know, I suppose it’s too late for all that now though. A smart club who has such a coach could end up getting significant value on the cheap the way it’s looking, I’m afraid.
Still, I don’t understand the reluctance of the Pirates to at least try putting Bay in the five hole since he’s tanking lately, although he did sneak a rollover through the infield Friday and drove a heater away to right field for another single later in the blowout game. But he’s hitting under the Mendoza line against southpaws and in away games, not to mention a ridiculous .105 with runners in scoring position thru May 1.
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Weird year everywhere we go. If it isn’t a circus act, it’s bizarre events like a broken water main in New York to light banks going out in Washington.
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From Saturday’s Post-Gazette:
“Altoona reliever Pat Bresnehan, one of the Pirates’ top pitching prospects, was placed on the minor-league disabled list with shoulder and forearm fatigue. The Pirates are calling the move precautionary. Bresnehan, 23, has a 2.19 ERA but showed uncharacteristic wildness.”
Uncharacteristic wildness - gee, you mean like what’s happening with Tom Gorzelanny?
Unbelievable.
Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus joins my chant: Shut down Gorzy.
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The email keeps coming in asking about McCutchen wondering if he’s having a breakout season of sorts.
No, while I do agree with the literature that speed guys peak earlier than other players, McCutchen is benefiting some from the lack of quality arms in the International League right now. Against better right handers he’s still lost in space at the plate and that’s a concern that could bury him in the bigs.
I wouldn’t care if Cutch goes .400/.600/1.000 this year in AAA, I pray Huntington forgets his name until at least September.
Neil Walker? I was never high on this guy as Bucco Blog readers know and he’s having a putrid year trying to find himself. What’s going to be interesting to watch is how long it is going to take for Kyle Stark and his group to get this young man back on track. That is, if they can.
Jake is a contributing writer at Bucco Blog. He's a bird dog (puppy) covering NC and SC (not for the Pirates), has kin on the 25-man of an AL club, and is married with a four-year-old son. His passion is the Pittsburgh Pirates - the team he tried out for. You can always find Jake hanging out at his personal site: http://pirates.mlblogs.com.
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Dude, old AA Lannan had pitched 21 straight scoreless innings!The buccos were patient and pounced.
You mean like Zach Duke’s 20 scoreless innings in 2005?
Dude, the Pirates weren’t patient - they wailed him because he didn’t have anything to get past them and, what he did have, was all flat and high in the zone.
Jake - What did the Pirates do to you that makes you so irrational?
Wow…. I left for like a week and you still suck Jake!! Good luck!!!!
:) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I understand you’ve been around the game, know people in the game. But honestly, there is a major disconnect between how much you know about baseball and how much you think you know. Alarmingly so. This is an awful blog.
Oh Heck, Jake’s off his meds again….watch out common sense Jake’s coming to destroy you!
It\’s unfortunate you turn practically anything positive into a negative spin.
Lannan\’s 21 straight scoreless innings is fantastic. I don\’t care what level he\’s pitching in, that\’s a great stat. And sure, he\’s going to see it end and odds are it\’ll come to a harsh close, which it did.
While I do agree about eventually seeing Dumatrait blow up, I thought when the lights went off it\’d affect his game. Maybe it did, maybe it didn\’t. but, up until then he had done well.
LoL - yeah, I’m off my meds.

Jake, about trading McLouth and Nady, you are assuming other teams are interested in making a deal right now. For most teams it is probably still too early. While you might want the Pirates to make a trade they can\’t unless someone else wants to make a deal. However, you\’re right, this would be a good high value time to make a deal. I can\’t believe I just wrote the Jake was right about something.
On another note, does anyone know of a better Pirates blog? This one is getting weaker and weaker.
Kevin, I don\’t think it\’s appropriate to link to other sites on this blog (or any where there\’s competition), but I think buccowire.blogspot.com is a dead site that provides other links.
I have been disappointed that the group which bought this site months ago hasn\’t provided what I thought they said they would in fresh blogs by other bloggers. What we are seeing is a daily diet of Jake\’s negativism. He is certainly entitled to his views, but maybe the site should be renamed the antibuccoblog. I think Jake could really have a neat site, but he seems to relish in pointing out the might have beens and shouldn\’t haves. He has some really good insights at times and offers a perspective not found elsewhere. I like reading what he has to say, knowing beforehand that I\’ll not always agree, but also knowing he may offer an opinion which is well worth considering.
Jake,
I know that the value for McLouth will be relatively high, but do you think he might actually be a piece that we might want to keep in place? I know that if a “rebuilding” mentality is adopted then no player should be considered untouchable, but he seems like a player that would fit in well with the other pieces the Pirates would seek to draft or trade for. I guess it will all come out in the wash, but for the young baseball fans of Pittsburgh who have lost some faith in JBay, Laroche, and others, it seems like McLouth is the kind of player that a competitive baseball team would want to have. I guess I am making as good an argument to trade him as I am to keep him. If his production is legit, then we should have a healthy bidding war for his services.
Jake,
Lannan is far from a “AA-ish pitcher.” Like salempirate said, 21 straight scoreless innings is awesome at any level, against any team. But what made it even more spectacular is who he did it against — the Mets, Braves, and Cubs. The Mets’ lineup isn’t exactly lighting things up at the moment, but that is still a very dangerous line-up — Church, Wright, and Reyes. Atlanta ranks in the top half the NL in avg., obp., slg., and ops, and has the most dangerous hitter in the NL right now in Chipper. The Cubbies are 17-12, and have been raking all season. They lead the NL in avg., runs, ops., and are second opp., and third in slg. They might have the best lineup in the NL right now — Fukodome, D. Lee, Soriano, Theriot, ARam, Soto, etc. So for you not to give Lannan credit for what he did is totally asinine!
Bob - When did you start reading this blog?
This team and franchise has been an embarrassment for the past 15 years. Draft pick after draft pick, manager after manager they are a joke. Obviously the challange of the economics of MLB is different than other sports. Florida figured it out, winning two rings, Billy Beane is doing a hell of a job. There is a blue print for success for money starved teams and this isn\’t it. The Nuttings get more wealthy every year they put a joke team on the field and every year you all have faith that they could maybe squeeze it out in the .500 central division. And every year they suck worse. Jake knows it, all of baseball knows it. Jake most of us appreciate your knowledge about the game and your honesty when it comes to judging the team you love. You know whats right and whats best for baseball in Pgh. The negative fans on your board who keep saying they are leaving (yet keep coming back) are the same fans who called for Charlie Batch to start over Ben in 2006.
The truth hurts and the truth is the Nuttings make money with a loosing team, period. Jake keep up the good work pointing out the continous faults of this poorly ran organization year after year until hopefully one day we wise up and the fans revolutionize and get the Nuttings out.
Matt Adamiak…are you a teacher at bishop carroll high school??
Jack,
Yes. How did you know that?
My name is Jeff Moschgat..i graduated there 2 years ago and i live right across the street…my brother Jack moschgat goes there now and he told me that might be you
Dude Duke’s 2005 stats rock! Take some medicine!
I never said I was gonna leave the site. I\’m a huge Pirate fan and I read all of the blogs. This one used to be very good and I always enjoyed Jake\’s perspective. But it has gone downhill ever since he switched to this site. Everything is negative. And I know the Pirates suck. I know. There\’s not one Pirates blog that doesn\’t talk about how bad they are. But Jake does it in such a pissy, not amusing fashion. I want these blogs to be awesome again, I really do. It\’s come to the point now where he doesn\’t even make up rumors from his \’sources\’ to keep us happy for a couple weeks.
Jeff,
Jackie is a very, very nice kid. I don’t have him in class, but I say good morning to him every morning when he strolls in at 7:59!
Jeff,
I also loved your most recent take on Jake.