Duke=Koufax? Crow vs Alvarez
By Jake • May 13th, 2008 • Category: Feature Story
Zach Duke looked like Sandy Koufax against the Braves, huh? That’s an amazing feat considering he went into the game with a near 6.00 xERA. What he’s been riding high on is an amazingly low 26% hit rate while stranding 82% of his base runners from his ridiculous 1.61 WHIP. Considering he’s also allowing 22% of his hits to go for line drives, don’t expect his luck to continue much longer.
And how about Gorzelanny coming back having been skipped a start - he pitched well since his arm rested some. Unfortunately, it looks like Huntington refuses to acknowledge the possibility his arm could be fatigued and is going to continue to push him. That’s not good. A few more starts down the road where Andrews hangs him out and his arm will be toast once again.
I see Snell continuesto take the high road just as I expected he would with his big fat new contract. He’ll come back down to earth after the break, be my guess.
And now Nady is hurt (groin), the Pirates finally admitted Sanchez isn’t 100% - and obviously hasn’t been since camp continuing to take steps backwards, and since they moved Sanchez up and McLouth down, Bay has lit up like a Christmas tree ( .935 OPS in May, 82% contact rate), while McLouth has tanked like I warned you he would (.205 BA, .698 OPS in May).
Of course, the Pirates aren’t too concerned about McLouth - they need to keep pushing Bay’s value up while trying to keep Nady’s 30% (career high?) line drive rate going he has in May. Now that’s sick and surprising he isn’t being walked more.
Still, we rolled off six in a row and that felt good but we’re going to becoming back to reality in St. Louis real fast. Throw the near 72% balls in play conversion rate on defense out the door we’ve been riding high on and expect to see the return to reality the next few series.
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I told you in February that Buster Posey had my eye and after watching him play against NC State before I went on vacation, having watched video of him over the last week, and having talked to a few scouts, I continue to marvel at his accomplishments. This kid’s the real deal.
That being said, it’s hard to pass on Pedro Alvarez’s tools or Aaron Crow’s arm. Those two are simply leaps above the rest of the class of 2008. Assuming the Rays are going to stay away from spending by taking Beckham, I think the Pirates have to jump on Crow’s $8M arm.
But I don’t think they will.
I expect to hear a few tidbits pop up via local media that will be designed to throw Pirates fans off base like Crow’s higher workload last two or makeup concerns. That will mean they plan to settle on Pedro Alvarez.
But I wouldn’t.
I don’t see any reason for the Pirates to be thinking anything except getting the best arm in the draft. Now I didn’t say the safest - I said the best. And that’s Crow - by far. If the Rays take Crow as I suspect they might, then I take Alvarez as he’s by far and away the second best player in this draft from my perspective.
#1 Crow, #2 Alvarez, #3 - #5 fill in the blanks with a lot of potential names.
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And yeah, the Pirates really screwed JvB by starting him all spring, throwing him in the pen in Pittsburgh, then forcing him to make a spot start. Hell no wonder the guy got raked. It’s pretty obvious the Pirates have given up on JvB. Perhaps too early at that.
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I plan to be back in the saddle here the 16th!
Jake is a contributing writer at Bucco Blog, a fan blog covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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Glad to see you’re still as negative as ever. No need to rush back.
Jake,
Has your vacation allowed you to reflect on the contributions of McClouth, Doumit, and Dumatrait versus Duffy, Paulino and Morris? It is ok to admit you were wrong.
If the answer is no…would we be in first and challenging for a ring with your guys?
i can’t wait to hear how we didn’t deserve to take 6 in a row! this is going to be good!
I can’t wait to hear how wrong Jake was about Doumit. They Pirates are 14-10 when he starts and 4-10 when Paulino starts.
He must really suck at calling games. Now that he is out, it may be the start of a slide. But it won’t be Doumit’s fault, I wonder who Jake will blame now.
Stay on vacation.
Break out the jogging shoes & buffet table. Here comes Ronny Paulino!
Stop being so negative about everything!! Aaron Crow is not the best arm in the draft either. If the Pirates take Crow and pass on Alvarez or Matusz its a mistake
What do you think about Abe Alvarez - once a prospect left go by the Red Sox? Good reclamation project?
Jack Flash is rebabbing in Altoona - I’ll have coverage from the Altoona series here in Harrisburg.
The only reason JVB started was of course the rainout but also the fact he hasn\’t pitched for 8 days. He pitched fine for 3 innings then KA-BOOM! Osaria saved further trouble but pitching 4 innings only giving up run. That lead Neal to send JVB down and call up Salas to save the bullpen. That plan worked in one of the best hard-fought games played all year.
That Doumit injury HURTS! He could be out from 2 to up to 6 weeks which by then a fire-sale will be in full effect. Paulino needs to start raking. Joey Bats needs to step up! Jack Flash can\’t come back soon enough. Even with if that happens they still can\’t replace Doumit\’s bat!
Whoever they draft they need to be in the Burgh within 2-3 years. I see either Beckham or Alvarez. Not a big fan of Posey. We need to select an impact talent since Cutch is the ONLY one in the farm system, pitcher or batter, that currently fits the mold. Too much risk to take Crow or Matusz. Wouldn\’t mind either Smock or Hosmer but they are only accessories at best.
Jake what do you think of Jason Michaels?
I am confused. Just a few days ago you said this about Posey:
I had a chance to watch Buster Posey Sunday against NC and will see him three days straight at Clemson the first week of May. I’m going to withhold my comments for now until I see the Clemson series but, man, there’s not much to like.
How did he go from not much to like to the real deal so quickly?
Nichol, it’s easy to know why Posey got so much better so quickly - he must have gotten joggin’ Ronny Paulino as his personal catcher.
Jake, wasn’t Gorzo already supposed to be shut down? Then how was he able to shut down the Braves? Be careful, yes. Throw away a whole season and start building arm strength from scratch in ‘09? Lunacy.
Pedro Alverez is a no brainer…they have to take the best player, and that he is
In baseball its all about names. Take BUSTER POSEY!
I don\’t think the Bucs have given up on JVB. In fact, I think they still think he can make it as a starter since he is going back into Indy\’s rotation.
If he isn\’t able to show that he can start in big leagues by end of this season, he\’ll be in bullpen mix for next year which is his make or break year with Bucs.
Disagree with taking Crow. I think an organizations in the Pirates position needs to take Alvarez, the safer pick and arguably the best. Crow from what I have read is an amazing talent (but with some concern over funky mechanics), but the rate of successful early round picks with pitchers is dismal. If you have a stocked system like the Rays, then perhaps you role the dice on a pitcher with great talent… otherwise, take the safer pick, which is clearly Alvarez.