“I would say there is a pretty good nucleus in place with the major-league roster, particularly the rotation. I would argue, too, that, if you go around the diamond with our everyday players, there are as many as five who underachieved last year. If just three of those five meet or exceed expectations, those 68 wins become greater.” – Pirates GM Neal Huntington

This quote from Huntington has been lingering on my mind since I saw it in the Post-Gazette a couple of weeks ago. Under-achievement was probably the word of the year when it came to the performance of nearly all Pirate position players in 2007, as guys like Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, and Ronny Paulino struggled to make consistent, solid contact at the plate, while some other guys such as Jose Bautista, Jose Castillo, and Chris Duffy underperformed, all for various reasons.

Taking a look at some of the WARP (Wins Against Replacement Player) ratings for the Buccos in 2007 in comparison to 2006, there were a few players in particular who saw significant lapses in production.

Among the most noteworthy:

Player                 2006     2007     Difference

Jason Bay             9.8         2.3         7.5
Adam LaRoche    6.6         4.1         2.5
Freddy Sanchez   7.5          4.5        3.0
Ronny Paulino     4.3         3.0        1.3

That’s a combined 14.3 wins the Pirates lost from these four players between 2006 and 2007, which could have taken the Bucs from 68 wins to that dreaded 82 win mark that has eluded the Bucs for 15 years now.

Logical thinking says that, if some of these guys bounce back, plus perhaps Duffy or Bautista shows some life at the plate, the Bucs could make a run at .500, right?

Based solely on the make-up of the everyday players, there is definite reason to think the Bucs could, in fact, turn things around with the same line-up.

Bay’s and LaRoche’s lapses in performance have been well documented. If LaRoche can shake his habit of being slow out of the gate, as propaganda spread by the proverbially optimistic front office would like you to believe, there is absolutely no doubt that he can contribute 6-8 wins to the Pirates total in 2008, if not more.

Meanwhile, I think Bay is a good bet to bounce back strong, so long as his injury problems prove to be just a one year thing. If Bay is healthy, there is little doubt that he can still post 8-10 wins for the Pirates in 2008.

Sanchez’s drop in production is significant, but at the same time, there is little reason to think that he is really the guy who hit .344 and won the batting title in 2006, although I do think .304 is a bit below what he’s capable of. If Sanchez levels out to the .320 range, he adds 5-6 victories to the Pirate total in 2008, which is a fair, though still optimistic, view to take.

Paulino is a whole other animal to discuss, and projecting his 2008 performance is a bit trickier, for obvious reasons. If new skipper Jim Russell can work his magic and get Paulino on track, he could very well earn the Pirates 5-6 wins. At the same time, Paulino’s apparent laziness could continue to cost the Bucs, and his WARP could drop some more.

Let’s say, for arguments sake, that LaRoche, Bay, and Sanchez all produce at the levels suggested above, while Paulino hangs in there at three or four wins. That’s still a 14-15 win swing, putting the Pirates right around the .500 win mark, right?

Maybe.

I, along with countless others, are very, very concerned with the state of the bullpen. Matt Capps has been solid so far at the back end of the rotation, and although Jake might not be high on him, his results have been unquestionably encouraging. That said, there is almost nobody left to bridge the gap from the rotation guys to Capps, especially if Damaso Marte gets traded, a move that will happen before the end of 2008, if not before the start of spring training. Our pen alone could blow anywhere between 5 to 10 games in ’08, if not more.

Additionally, Jack Wilson’s spike in performance inflated the Pirate win total by about 6 games in ’07, and logic suggests that he’ll see his production decline to around 3 wins at most in ’08, probably costing the Bucs another 3-4 wins from the projected total.

To recap, the could Pirates gain 14 or 15 wins from guys bouncing back, while they probably will lose anywhere from 8-14 games due to bullpen struggles and Wilson’s impending falter in production. At best, the Pirates maybe push 80 wins in 2008, which is what Neal the Optimist would like you to believe.

In reality, neither the players, coaches, front office guys, nor the fans should actually expect the team to win more than 75 games. They’ll probably struggle to hit 70, especially when September hits and guys like Walker and possibly McCutchen get their first cup of coffee at the Major League level.

The point I’m really trying to make here: Are the Pirates really going to keep butts in the seats with a team struggling to win 70 games?

Say the Pirates sell off most of their current pieces for prospects and revitalize an almost dead minor league system. How much fan support could the Pirates possibly lose if they drop from a 70-win team to a 60-win ball-club?

What do the Pirates realistically have to lose in trading nearly everybody for prospects?

Filed under: News & Opinion