“Jake, if you come back from vacation I’ll kick your ass.”  – someone close to the team said in jest Thursday

Eight wins last ten.  Maybe he’s right, maybe I’ve been the jinx all these years? I mean, how else do you explain:

– three of four against the Braves where we had won just 33% the last two years;

– two of three in St. Louis where we’ve won just 36% last two;

– Salas making his MLB debut in the 9th inning of a tie game, he walked three in one inning of work, and he stranded them all allowing us to come back and win;

– we were hitting just .223 (26th in MLB) last seven games before Thursday’s game against the Cardinals yet had won five of the last seven - with a .647 OPS to boot (helllooo);

– ninth worst fielding percentage and second most walks issued last seven games while winning five;

– Nady 6 for his last 31 (.194 BA), Bay 4 for his last 23 (.174 BA), McLouth 4 for his last 26 (.154 BA), LaRoche 3 for his last 22 (.136 BA), and Sanchez just 5 for his last 26 (.192 BA) - yet still won 5 of 7 and 8 of 10;

– and many, many unorthodox management decisions that have panned out despite running totally against the grain.

Talk about luck swinging in a club’s favor.  Wow.

But a funny thing about that luck, over the last 22 games the Pirates have scored an average of 5.5 runs per game and allowed just 4.1.  Because of that, they won an incredible 63% (13-9), including 4 of 9 on the road, are one game from .500, and go against the Cubs weakest link in Sean Gallagher Friday.

Yeah, yeah, so the Cubs have won 9 of the last 9 games we have played against them, and yeah, there’s no doubt Sweet Lou has the Cubs wound up tighter than new rear coil springs on a ‘65 Eldarado.  But they are also probably looking past the Pirates to the Astros series and that’s an advantage - we’ll walk into their house with nothing to lose.

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So let’s take a quick look at our expected win/loss rate:

We’ve already won 9 games in May and the historical stats suggest we should win about five of the remaining fourteen games.  If we do, we’ll end up with a .500 record in May.  Anything more than five wins puts us ahead of the game, and the way things have been going, there’s hope we can win at least 6 or 8 of the 14.  We’ll see.

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So Doumit finally found his way to the DL.  We all knew it was going to happen, we just didn’t know how or when.  The Pirates are saying four weeks so we should probably expect him back after the break.

One thing Paulino has absolutely excelled in so far is being clutch in his limited opportunities.  Out of 45 catchers with 40 or more at bats in MLB, he’s fourth in RBI/AB (.21) and leads all catchers in RBI/H with one RBI per hit.  For a guy who had pounded the ball on the ground all too often, that’s not too shabby. 

While we’ll miss Doumit’s line-to-line mashing, I’m hoping the end result of Chavez and Paulino taking over will be even fewer runs allowed.  The way we’re hitting the ball lately, we’ll need that.

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Evan Meek was retained for an “undisclosed” amount of cash, the media reported today.  You almost have to assume it was an obscene amount paid to the Rays since nobody is willing to acknowledge the cost.  Maybe we’ll hear down the road.

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Jack Flash is in Indy and they expect him back when the Pirates return home to play the Brewers next Tuesday.  Right…  if Wilson isn’t in Chicago to play Saturday’s game, I’ll be shocked and I’ll tell you why later this weekend.

Besides, there will be great weather on tap for the Cubs series, albeit a brisk wind the first two games.