Is Coonelly in too deep?
By Jake • Jun 8th, 2008 • Category: Feature Story
Bud Selig’s ex-strongarm slot man now finds himself in a precarious position - or two.
One, as President of the Pittsburgh Pirates, he is charged with the responsibility of putting the stamp of approval on all MLB contracts, including those from the first year player draft. When Pirates counsel Larry Silverman walks into his office with a potential MLB deal for Pedro Alvarez - all but certain to be at least 36% higher cost than Connelly’s initially designed slot system recommends - how can he possibly say no?
And two, his future aspirations are said to include a desire to be baseball’s next Commissioner. So if the deal Silverman presents is significantly over slot as expected, how is that going to play into Connelly’s future?
It’s not an easy position to be in. I mean, how often does the average Joe have a chance to become MLB’s most powerful leader? Right, never. Nobody knows that better than Frank Coonelly.
It’s my opinion that the Commissioner’s Office will blindly put a stamp of approval on any deal the Pirates present for Alvarez. That’s a no-brainer because they want to see the Pirates spend a few bucks to become more competitive just as the Pirates want to improve.
It’s picks two and down that might rattle Coonelly, and one reason Pirates fans shouldn’t expect to see a majority of the ‘riskier, more impact probable’ picks signed.
Let’s look at signing bonus monies paid out by the Pirates in the first five rounds the last few years and compare that to what could be developing for our 2008 picks:
Alvarez will probably end up with a four-year MLB deal worth somewhere around $7.5M and options and bonuses that may take the deal up to a six-year, $9.5M type of contract. The probability he signs before August 1st is less than 5%. The only thing I see standing in the way of this deal is Alvarez’s desire to finish college.
Scheppers is, of course, the wild card. He’ll have to report to Pittsburgh and take the mandatory MRI, I’d guess the Pirates will then want to see how/if he can throw, and what Doc Andrews might think is the best route for the young man. Assuming it’s labrum surgery, then I suspect the Pirates might jump to sign him on a signing bonus around $1.25M (perhaps prorated based on performance after surgery?) and set up knife time with Andrews or Doc Yocum. The probability of Scheppers signing before August 1st is around 15% because there may only be one solution - surgery.
Mercer to Wilson will all sign for slot money, I assume. That leaves a couple of other wild cards like Grossman and Freeman who I’ll talk about here, and a few others with a signing probability significantly lower I won’t be adding here.
I’m guessing if Grossman is given a tick better than second round money, he’d probably sign. Freeman is probably going to be offered fifth round money, be my guess.
So Coonelly really only has to deal with a few players over slot - Scheppers, who won’t draw as much wrath from the Commissioner’s Office because of his talent level, a few high school players who, combined, probably won’t cost the Pirates more than $2M total if they all sign, and, of course, Alvarez.
So, is Coonelly in too deep?
Obviously, no. In fact, the Pirates selections actually protected Coonelly’s precarious position to a degree. And since the Pittsburgh Pirates today are still owned by the same group every high school and college coach in the nation know to be frugal and losers in competition, most of the advanced ‘riskier, more impact probable’ talent is going to run just like they have for the last ten years.
Some of the names might have changed in the front office but, other than a few new processes and the addition of new technology, there hasn’t been one move to suggest this organization is any different than it has been.
Except the willingness to take Alvarez which the Pirates had to do or they faced losing the rest of their precious little remaining fan base. Simply put - they had no choice.
Coonelly can walk away from these signings smelling like roses with the Commissioner’s Office no matter what he and Boras work out on Alvarez. But he only makes a point with the fans if he signs all of the ‘riskier, more impact probable’ talent his staff took where the decision to sign or not only rests on the amount of cash offered.
The fans won’t want to hear things like ‘we don’t know what is wrong with Scheppers and if he’s worth signing’ - or - ‘we could’t get Grossman to sign because he wanted too much money’ when they had time to determine those issues before they made their selections.
And the last thing fans are going to want to hear is - ‘we don’t have enough money in our budget to sign them all’ because at that point Coonelly better just pack his bags and head back to Philly because that’s exactly what the fans are waiting to hear.
Now there, Coonelly might be in too deep.
Jake is no longer contributing at Bucco Blog, a fan blog covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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Jake - I have to say this because quite frankly, it has to be said. No disrespect intended, but you are the single most negative blogging person I have come across in my life.
I, like you, have indured the 15 consecutive losing seasons, my first baseball memory is Francisco Cabrera bringing Sid Bream home when I was 12, I know how bad it has been.
I am simply asking could you please, please, please give this new management team I don\’t know, a full season or two before you decide to bury them. You cannot bash them for any of this team as it is currently constituted, except for guys like Tyler Yates, and a couple of bench/utility guys. The thing is, the guys Coonelly/Huntington brought in, Yates, Gomez, Jason Michaels have all been not half bad, especially Yates, great move there.
Now onto what you are discussing today, the draft and the draft picks. Dude, you are correct at how much they will compensate Alvarez. This kid is the best power hitter on the board besides possibly Smoak, but he was not going to get chosen #2 overall.
My real beef is that you seem to think all of these kids are going to run in the opposite direction at the site of joining a team like the Pirates. The fact is, alot of these kids want to play Major League Baseball, and if the Pirates offer up decent money to these kids, they would probably sign. You need to think of the risk/reward for these kids. Say they decide to run from the Pirates and go play college ball, what if they blow a knee out, or a pitcher blows out an elbow, there careers are shot. They can get paid semi-decent money right now, if they succeed in their 6 years in baseball hell as you would make it seem, they are really going to get paid.
I just think you need to give this management a chance, because they have given you nothing to bash so far. They have sent Morris packing, they have shipped off Paulino, and they have not signed/will not sign Laroche to any sort of extension. I know you could easily come back to me and say they had to do this or this was somethign obvious that had to be done. The fact of the matter is, this was not done by the previous regime, and is being done here. You cannot take the past blunders and apply it to this regime.
All in all Jake, I am asking, begging, pleading you to give them more than the 10 months they have been here to make this ship right. This draft spoke more to me than anything they have written about accountability, or we\’ll do this or we\’ll do that papers they can write to the fan base. It is all about what you put on the field, they were dealt the hand they currently have, they made draft picks to improve on this. Kudos to them.
Mark = Neal Huningtons son?
How did you know? Edit by Jake… no need to bash anyone Mark.
Judgement should be reserved til August 15th, picks will be signed or not signed and the trade deadline will be gone.Any update on the academy? When is the signing period for non-draft eligible players?
Mark - if the last 10 years you spoke about hasn’t felt like you have been sitting in a dentist chair getting your teeth pulled without novacaine, and now all of a sudden you feel warm and fuzzy inside because some names and internal processes have changed, well, kudos to you.
I don’t buy it myself. Been there, done that.
If you look at the big picture that this organization has lost talent, opportunity, and time because of the current ownership’s greed machine, then you’ll see smaller pictures like draftees who run year after year because the ’sucky’ Pittsburgh Pirates drafted them, agents who tell their clients it may not be the best place to play, and players who refuse to sign.
You could put Branch Rickey III in as President, Tony LaCava and his vast scouting teams in place as GM, and hire all the Bones and Kotch’s in the world, but if ownership is driven to bankroll, not much is going to change.
It takes a committment from ownership and the Nuttings will never - and read my lips - never endorse winning over profits imo. Therein is the problem.
So what does that mean? That means whoever is in the FO has to take more and more risk in order to obtain higher productivity. More risk inevitably means more failure as history has proven - it’s just a matter of time. But no matter which model the FO chooses to use to run the org, they are still funded by the same penny pinchers who put us in the very position we’re in now.
Very little has changed, albeit the Nuttings probably received a memo from the Commish demanding they finally use revenue sharing towards competition on the field instead of reducing their self-created debt.
As for the current regime in the FO, sure, they have done some positive things and I’ve noted some of them like bringing in contact hitters, giving Chavez his due, paying a few bucks on contracts to worthy youth, and the like. There have been good things - just like we saw under Littlefield or even Bonifay. There has also been some bad - like hiring development personnel from salesmen ranks.
But let’s wait until August 15th to see who gets signed, who runs, and what we end up with before we talk more about your warm and fuzzy feeling. The 2008 draft won’t even put a dent in this organization because every other team drafted the best they could find too. It’s a matter of who gets their picks signed, developed, and producing that will make the difference in denting or not. And will this FO even be in place then? Hmm…
Cheers, Jake
If Alvarez\’s main concession or desire is to finish at Vanderbilt, then wouldn\’t it seem logical to sign quickly? He could join the rookie league in July, perhaps a short stint at State College and then work out an agreement to be released in mid-August, just in time for the fall semester. He could be done before spring training. Surely $7M would garner a few dates with the girls back at Nashville.
Brett - I don’t know how many credits he lacks but I got the impression he could finish this Fall. Perhaps he will using the summer and a concession or two from Vandy? I don’t know. But club’s routinely grant contractual rights to players to finish their education - it’s a plus for the org and the individual. We’ll just have to see how it plays out with Alvarez.
Kudos to Mark. Your first post is right on they money.
Note to Jake: You edited Marks comment and said \
Kudos to Mark. Your first post is right on they money.
Note to Jake: You edited Marks comment and said “no need to bash anyone Mark”??
Dude, what do you think you’re doing? You’re constantly bashing the FO before they have a change to put their marks on the franchise. And how is it possible to have a blog with a comments section and not expect to get bashed and/or critized sometimes for your opinions. Rabbit ears?
That’s why they’re called opinions…..to discuss/argue/support…..facts are boring!