Key to the draft? Flamethrowers.
By Jake • May 26th, 2008 • Category: Feature Story
“Problems are the price you pay for progress.” — Branch Rickey
So here we are ten days away from the draft, and the Pirates front office is probably starting to feel pretty good about their board. And they should, it’s not much of a draft in terms of impact college players. The real talent in this draft is in the arms of the high school kids that will go round two and on, but we’re not likely to take many of those in the first five rounds.
Ask any Pirates fan who they want taken and 99% will tell you the same thing - the best player available. The problem with that is, who is the best player available and by what standard? By the media (newspapers, talk shows, maganizes, and blogs?) in-house eyes (scouting reports, talk among peers, and industry consensus?), or does organizational need force trade offs?
The Pirates know the fans want to see a hitter taken #2. No ifs, ands, or butts. If they take a pitcher, the fan base is likely to revolt - I just can’t emphasis that point enough.
But from what I’m hearing, that’s not bothering the Pirates front office one bit. If they want a pitcher #2, they are going to take one and the fan base can take a flying leap. The reason they feel like that is because they are charged with the responsibility of moving the franchise forward, and all the media and fan whining in the world isn’t going to distract them.
Good for them… at least everyone can rest easy believing they will at least be objective in their pick, no matter who they take.
My previous feature article “Ownership Hell” clearly showed that runs scored doesn’t always correlate with wins like most fans believe. In fact, we scored more runs in 2007 than many of Tanner’s teams did in the late 70’s and we still lost a ton of games. Obviously, a balance is required.
One fact remains true today as it did 100 years ago - you have to score more than your opponent in each game to win. And we all know that to score runs, it requires base runners unless you have a lineup with five Babe Ruths, and even the Yankees can’t field that kind of a lineup. So the game generally comes down to base runners allowed versus base runners you produce.
So let’s look a bit closer at that.
The chart below shows the correlation between the Pirates winning percentage and baserunners allowed and base runners produced in three different periods - since 1897, since 1970, and since 1990.
As you can clearly see since 1970, base runners allowed on defense correlates the highest with winning percentage by nearly a two-to-one margin. Not offense. Read that again - not offense. That mirrors our finding in the “Ownership Hell” article - reduce base runners allowed and you stand to have a higher winning percentage than if you don’t. But don’t forget that events during any given year cycle like, for instance, early in the year hitting dominated this year as it generally does.
Ok, so if pitching is generally more important than offense, then why in the world would teams bypass the best arm(s) in any given draft? You’re right, they shouldn’t.
Now it’s not always that easy because some years the pitching talent all runs together and there isn’t one clear pick like, say, the Rays had with David Price in 2007. And other years there might be a five-tool hitter you just can’t pass up on no matter what the organizational need. Justin Upton was a great recent example of that in 2005.
But generally, organizations need pitching first… your first goal in the game as GM is to reduce runs scored which generally requires a reduction of base runners. The easiest way to do that is to never let a batter put the ball in play. Right, the strike out is king and it generally takes either power arms or deception to get strike outs, but power arms are the most abundant.
So if you know reducing the number of base runners allowed is generally worth more than producing base runners, why would you want draft a bat in the #2 slot, all things being equal?
And that, folks, is now two segments why smaller market teams like the Pirates should focus on pitching and defense first, then makeup, then offense, then organizational need. That to me should be the Pirates drafting stategey each and every year.
Therefore as I’ve said over and over, the Pirates should take the best arm in the draft and I believe that to be Crow, but there are a few others worthy like Mautsz and Cole… it just depends on the front office’s five year plan.
Now as I said above, if a player falls that has too many glorious tools that you can’t pass up you have to take him, and in this draft that is only Pedro Alvarez. Not Buster Posey, not Tim Beckham, and not Kyle Skipworth.
But I say that about those three tongue-in-cheek because it will probably take Posey more time to develop than a typical college catcher and the other two are at least five year farm guys before they can be expected to get close. If the Pirates five year plan includes ”re”-rebuilding, then I’d guess well see them taking a couple of the high school power arms in the first few rounds as well.
History above clearly defines our top-of-the-draft need - pitching, pitching, pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Until we get them, bats won’t generally do us a bit of good. And as Rickey said above, taking pitching might cause a problem but that’s the price you have to pay for progress sometimes.
But those are my opinions.
–
Added bonus for you - here are the current hitting and pitching charts for the NL (BR/9 = base runners per nine innings):
Wow - look at the mess we have with our pitching. A 14.65 base runners per 9 innings rate - highest in the league which is simply choking us. In fact, every category in red above is the worst of all 16 clubs. That’s a lot of red ink, to be sure.
But look at base runners produced so far - 12.37 which is 5th worst in the NL. So how in the world can the Pirates have a .480 winning percentage having allowed more base runners than any NL team and also have the 5th worth base runners produced? It’s called luck. Pure unadulterated luck. But that’s what happens when sample sizes are smaller than the whole - you see the runs of luck stick out. Over the season, it will all even out - it always does.
The chart below simply takes the offensive runs scored per game and subtracts the defensive runs allowed per game and then adds that to the difference of offensive base runners produced per game minus defensive base runners allowed per game. That measurement gives you a down and dirty general look at which teams are for real in the NL, which ones are playing over their head, and which ones can be expected to rebound over the season.
The Dimondbacks seem for real so far, the Braves, Cubs, and Cardinals are getting the job done, but look at the Marlins, Astros, and Pirates. All three have a winning percentage that isn’t justified over a full season. These figures will change as the season goes on but, for now, those four teams I mentioned above look to be the strongest in the NL.
And for all you stats freaks, here is a breakdown of base runners allowed, base runners produced, and our winning percentage since 1970. I tossed in the couple of years in the 50’s to match the previous article in case you want to go back and compare this to the chart there.
Jake is no longer contributing at Bucco Blog, a fan blog covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Email this author | All posts by Jake
I am definitely in the hitter camp. Mainly because pitchers are less predictable. I would rather the Bucs take the best hitter available in round 2 and go for an arm in round two.
Now if I was certain the first pick pitcher would be a Roger Clemens or Roy Halladay then take him.
But there are too many arm and shoulder blow outs to spend the resources for a pitcher with the second pick unless the bats are not high ceiling.
Your projection of Posey as having the potential to be a 750 ops player takes him out of the running for pick number 2. the Bucs need someone with the potential to put up 850+
Henry makes a good point about Posey if he isn\’t a budding superstar. Reading your material has me wondering if we should take a pitcher first if Alverez isn\’t available.
Jake, good analysis. But I disagree.
It is a great theory that loading up on power arms with the potential to miss a lot of bats is the best thing for an organization like the Pirates. But there are a million hard throwers in AA who can’t get major leaguers out. OK, maybe a slight exaggeration, but my point is accurate. There is a lot more to keeping batters off base than just a pitcher throwing a hard fastball with good movement. Location, secondary stuff, deception, etc. You know all this, so I am not trying to talk down to you or anyone else, just stating the obvious.
And pitchers do have more inherent injury risk. So Crow has more injury risk than the hitters available in the draft. Plus there are more questions about his secondary stuff than a guy like Matusz. Maybe he has #1 potential because of his hard moving fastball. But for a team as weak as the Pirates who have had such a combination of bad picking and bad luck in recent drafts, I think they need to take a hitter early just to help minimize the risk. There are usually a good number of high school arms available after the first few rounds of the draft (either who throw fairly hard or are just projected to throw fairly hard). I think a much better strategy for the Pirates is to take one of the very good available bats at #2, then focus on good arms starting in the next few rounds.
Any idea how a team like the Pirates budget for the draft? Does ownership tell managment that they have XXX dollars to spend on the draft? I am curious, because if that is how it works, the I also think the Pirates should avoid Alvarez.
The general consensus seems to be that he is at the top of the class amongst collegiate hitters. But his rumored asking price ($8 million with spot on the 40-man-roster) is outrageous. Maybe you give that to a guy who is in a class by himself (and if that is the case, then by all means spend that kind of money on Alvarez). But given the inherent uncertainty in the baseball draft, if this is how draft budgets work, I think it would be much better for the Pirates to spend $4 million (or whatever) on a hitter who is in the same class as Alvarez and then spend the extra money to make sure the upside arms taken in the later rounds are signed. The Pirates need to draft as many guys with some signability concerns as possible. Use the extra $3-4 million saved by not drafting Alvarez to give 5-10 upside pitchers an extra $250,000 each to forego college and sign with the Pirates. Then the Pirates get a bunch of power arms like you suggest, which gives the team lots of upside (albeit lots of risk), but still limits their risk early in the draft where they really need to succeed if they want to be competitive within 3 years.
Just my take.
mymrbig - yeah, that makes sense too. Lots of ways to approach the draft.
As for the budget, I’m under the impression that Coonelly gets a budget in December/January and they run with it during the year. Obviously draft allocation is part of that budget and I assume with the #2 pick, they allocate about $4M for the slot. If they need to go higher, they either tap other parts of the payroll budget they have available to them or ask ownership for more money or to move money around.
But realize that they have already spoken to Alvarez, already have a pre-draft agreement with him, and know almost exactly what Boras wants. That just leaves the contract details to be worked out. The same is true with Beckham, Posey, Crow, Mautsz, and/or any other player they believe they might take #2. Nearly all the teams do that now.
As for taking high school arms, that is a lot riskier and history tells us we don’t want to do that with early rounds unless the player is head and shoulders above a college player.
Still, there isn’t any player in this draft that has a neon sign above him that says take me other than Alvarez, and even he’s a bit suspect. This draft just isn’t that strong in impact outside a couple at the top unless you go with nealy 100% high school players.
I think we need to take Alvarez. They say he isn\’t a long way from the majors and it would definetely proove to the fans that the new Pirates management is serious about turning the Pirates into a winner. If they don\’t take Alvarez, my second and third chose would be either Beckham or Smoak.
In other news, the Pirates should do everything possible to tank this season to get the #1 overall pick in 2009. You want power arms, how good did Stephen Strasburg (San Diego State) look this year? 97.1 IP, 61 H, 133 K, 16 BB, 1 HR, 1.57 ERA. That is about as dominating as you can get.
Again, I have no problem with the Pirates taking Alvarez if he is considered to be in a different tier of hitters than the remaining hitters (G. Beckham, Posey, Smoak, etc.). But if he is mearly slightly above all these guys, then I question the sanity of giving him so much money when (1) he still isn\’t a sure thing and (2) giving him so much money might handicap the Pirates draft strategy for the remainder of the draft.
I agree on the risk of taking high school arms early. That is why I suggested doing so in later rounds and just for top talents that have fallen because of signability concerns (need to pay them above perceived talent level for them to forego college commitment). But a lot of this type of player (not saying anyone is particular) is asking for $250,000 to $1 million to forego school. If the Pirates take someone cheaper than Alvarez and use the rest of the money to actually sign a bunch of high ceiling high schoolers, I think puts the Pirates in the best position 3+ years down the road.
At least the team spreads out its risk in a bunch of players, rather that putting all its eggs in the Alvarez basket (I hate cliches, but it works).
i deffinitly agree i think the pirates should get alvarez because it looks like the rays like posey. i would love to the the bucosss draft alvarez next thursday he will be ready to be are opening day starter next season at third base and also gives the pirates a bright future with alvarez, mccuchen,pearce walker,mclouth, and doumit. If we also get alvarez i truly belive 100% that the new managment team is for real!!!!!!!
please Neil draft alvarez!!!!!!!
mymrbig said: “But if he is mearly slightly above all these guys, then I question the sanity of giving him so much money when…”
You know, I couldn’t care less as a fan what the cost is to the Nuttings. Not one bit. I mean, come on, we have been eating hamburger helper since this ownership bought the club and it’s about damn time they bought us a steak. And if that steak ends up being a bit stale by the time we get to eat it, well hey, at least they bought the one steak in 13 years.
And hell, if they don’t spend what it takes to sign the other 14 players or so they take worth their salt and they lose some, then they are no better than Littlefield was under Nutting.
I really, REALLY don’t want to hear one word about signability, perceived cost, or projected value. Screw that. Buy the steak. End of story.
well put jake…couldnt agree more
Jake,
How would you rank Ryan Braun, Pedro Alvarez, Tim Beckham, Neil Walker, & Andrew McCutchen? 1 to 10 (10 highest)
hmm.. rank in what? Power? Overall?
I’ve seen Braun vs MLB pitchers, I haven’t seen Cutch, Beckham, Alvarez, or Walker. So tough question. As far as general observations and projectability, I’d say Braun, Cutch, Alvarez (but if in just projected power put Alvarez in front of Cutch), Beckham, then Walker.
Projected overall baseball player.
– edit by Jake — that’s how I ran them Carter.
My comment about giving Alvarez so much money are based on the assumption that the Pirates FO has a limited draft budget. My point is that I do not think it is in their best interest to blow a significant portion of the budget on Alvarez if that severly hinders their ability to draft and sign talented players later in the draft. My comments have absolutely NOTHING to do about saving ownership money. My assumption is that a certain amount of money has already been allocated for the draft and then laying out what I consider to be the most efficient use of that budget to maximize the talent coming into the organization.
Another risk I would love to see the Pirates take - Tanner Scheppers if he is still around in the 2nd or 3rd round. Top 10 arm who has fallen big time because of highly unusual stress facture in his shoulder. Sounds scary and it probably is, but I would rather roll the dice on an extremely talented pitcher with a skeletal problem than an extremely talented pitcher with a muscular problem or connective tissue problem!