On to nose bleed land
By Jake • Jul 16th, 2008 • Category: Jake's Take
On to Colorado.
This could be called the “who is starting series” because both clubs have question marks. The Pirates will probably send Maholm, Snell, Herrera, and Duke to the mound with the Rockies possibly sending Jiminez, Cook, De La Rosa, and Reynolds. All of that is just a wild guess.
One thing seems to be for sure, Troy Tulowitzki will not be rejoining the Rockies until we leave.
So with the temperatures up in the high 80’s to low 90’s for this series, a few broken down or third tier pitchers throwing, the Bucs rolling in coming off an exhausting schedule before the break and with only two days off, and the Rockies feeling like they are headed to a NLWD title, who the heck knows what’s in store for this series.
Historically we don’t do too bad in Colorado but we’ve only won 15 on the road this year and the series starts off against Jiminez who, other than walks, has been lights out (just 17 ER in 57 IP at Coors). Maholm hasn’t exactly been a slouch lately but he has a tendency to get hit around at Coors. Oh - and he’s never won his first game back from the break.
Should be a good series with game times routinely exceeding 3 hours. Other than game 1, take the over even though the Rockies bats were MIA before the break.
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Phillies seem to be after John Grabow who seems all but sure to be the first Pirate dealt this July, I’m guessing.
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Will Carroll suggests the Pirates should consider dealing Ian Snell:
“Ian Snell is a name that hasn’t been discussed much, but could bring a huge return for the Pirates.”
Put on the market one of our players who has lost significant value this year (+2.5 WAR to zip), has shown a continuation of previous poor makeup, and has just come off the DL with elbow strain and pitched two poor games?
Oh yeah, he’ll bring us a huge return, won’t he? Maybe 6 or 8 C or D prospects I’d bet. Just what we need.
I wanted Snell dealt this last winter when his value was highest, not now. What a waste of value.
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ESPN mentioned that the Pirates have put a very high price on Xavier Nady and we’ve already heard the same thing about Jason Bay.
Huntington loses nothing by shooting for the moon with Nady and Bay. We’ll just keep them. Besides, who do we have that routinely hits in the clutch outside Nady?
Instead, I’d let everyone know who calls on Nady or Bay that there is another guy who can be had - Nate McLouth, and I’d sell him now why he’s at top dollar (like we should have done with Snell last winter).
Deal Nady this winter.
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If I’m Huntington, I tell GMs Marte is off the market unless they pick up the phone and call me with a ridiculous package.
Instead, deal Yates and Grabow. Oh - and throw in Burnett, JVB, Salas, Munoz, and Osoria as a “tag alongs” to clear our 40-man of the garbage.
Jake is no longer contributing at Bucco Blog, a fan blog covering the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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any news on alvarez? less than 1 month till bucos can sign him
i think Nady will end up with Atlanta i really like this pirates team all they need to get is a few more pitchers, and sign Alvarez and they will be in good shape. i say Bay stays which i hope he does, and if anything Nady will get dealt at the winter meetings if he isnt gone by july31st.
also dodgers need a closer Marte for Mcdonald? i wouldent mind Kemp but we dont need him.
Jake, any thoughts on this analysis of Nady:
I think the Pirates are taking a decent approach here. Teams seem to be acting like they are trading for Xavier Nady circa-2006. But he has shown real progress the last couple years.
His 7.3 BB% is a career high.
His 16.7 K% is a career low.
His 13.5% HR/FB is in line with his 13.0% career average.
The only number that strikes me as fluky is his .351 BABIP (fangraphs says he has .355, but they do not include his 3 sac flies). Even then his BABIP is not inflated by lucky ground balls, but rather by his 26.8% line drives. The line drive rate might be unsustainable, but he was at 21.3% last year.
Even if his BABIP regressed to .318 (his career BABIP is .316, do this by subtracting 8 singles), his overall line would still be very good: .295/.353/.498
For perspective:
.295/.353/.498 - Xavier Nady
.275/.348/.513 - Evan Longoria
.302/.351/.547 - Carlos Lee
.306/.372/.508 - Derrek Lee
.289/.327/.504 - Corey Hart
.307/.376/.490 - Magglio Ordonez
So even docking him for a high BABIP (which may or may not be lucky, depending on his ability to keep hitting line drives), he is in some very good company offensively. Add in the fact that he is under team control through 2009 (albeit arbitration) and that he can play LF, RF, or 1B, I think the Pirates are right to set the bar pretty high.
He will probably be a Type A player after 2009 (meaning the acquiring team would probably get some draft picks). Plus, his home ballpark is tough on righties and has held down his SLG some.
Jake, why are you so down on McLouth? Yes, he is overperforming, but we can accept much less. He is, right now, on pace to hit 33 HR and drive in 114 runs. Several months ago we would have been delighted for him to be on pace to hit 25 HR and drive in 85 runs. I think these are reasonable expectations for McLouth in the future. The other fact your forgetting is that we have McLouth for 3 years and Nady and Bay for just one. The way a team like the Pirates can compete is by signing guys like McLouth now, a la Evan Longoria, and not signing guys like Bay next year. If we do sign bay, we will have to pay him probably around $17 million in the last year of his new contract, when he is 35. Sometimes you make great points, but sometimes you come off as having biases towards certain people, and McLouth would be one of those.
I still think Marte should be dealt as part of a package. Other teams (smartly) are not willing to give up an elite prospect for Marte (or Fuentes). The Pirates (smartly) are not willing to trade Marte for anything less than the compensation picks he will bring if he leaves as a free agent, plus some value for the rest of the season. The only way the Pirates can maximize his value in a trade is if they package him with another player. This way the other team can give up some very good prospects for 2 players.
Some proposals:
(1) Nady + Marte to Rays for Hellickson, Niemann, Morlan, Jaso, Mason, and Townsend
The Rays would benefit greatly next year (financially) if they make the playoffs this year. They would give up some nice prospects, but they have tons of minor league pitching depth (they keep Price, Davis, Talbot, and plenty of other pitching prospects). Hellickson is a top 40 prospect. Niemann could be a #3/#4 or good set-up guy (if healthy). Morlan could be a closer. Jaso could be a real answer at catcher (if healthy). Mason could be a #4.
(2) Bautista to Twins for Tyler Robertson and Humber.
Seems like a Twins kind of move, as they are never known for acquiring the kind of bat they actually need (Beltre would be a great fit, but they are too cheap). Bautista is-what-he-is. .255/.335/.420, decent glove. He is an upgrade over Lamb (offensively and defensively) and gives their lineup more balance. Robertson is a good pitching prospect and I still think Humber could have some success in the bullpen.
(3) Bay + Paulino to D-Backs for Gerardo Parra, Jarrod Parker, Miguel Montero, Emilio Bonifacio, and Cesar Valdez
Maybe this is asking for too much. But the D-Backs seem like the most likely team to make a huge play for Bay. They would have to sort out their OF situation in the offseason. But they need a big bat and Bay would be very good in their home ballpark. Parker is a great arm. Montero has more defensive skills than Doumit and a very intriguing bat. Bonifacio is only included assuming he can handle SS. Parra is a very good OF prospect. I know nothing about Valdez other than he is getting the job done in the minors.
(4) Wilson and Grabow to the Cards for Todd, Izturis, Reyes, Joe Mather, and either Adam Ottavino, or Clay Mortenson.
Cards fill 2 needs (SS and LH reliver). Pirates add a very good pitching prospect (Todd), a decent pitching prospect (ottavino or Mortenson), an arm with some upside (Reyes), a fill-in SS (Izturis), and a late-blooming OF bat (Mather).
I am not suggesting all these should happen. But some of them are realistic. And the most important thing is that the Pirates would acquire the Big 3 from Rice! I threw Humber and Townsend into the trades above just for this purpose. What is life without a little fun?
Ryan - no news on Alvarez other than he hasn’t signed yet.
mymrbig - You hit the nail on the head when you talked about his HR/FB rate without knowing it. He’s always been less than a 50% FB guy. Plus, his LD rate is - perhaps - a tick high because of PNC’s gaps.
Some are asking what happened to Nady lately? In 71 of his last 97 AB he’s gone cold: .254 BA and 1 HR despite an 85% contact rate. In those other 26 AB his expected batting average was around .300 but he raked a .415 BA.
First three months last year he hit one HR every 19 AB (248 AB), this year one every 25 (257). That’s a difference between a 22 HR guy and a 29 over 550 AB. Even a better representation is this, over his last 544 AB he’s hit one HR every 27 AB, and in 389 of those AB he hit one every 30 AB which is an 18 HR guy.
What he has shown is the propensity to heat up against pitchers he’s seen over and over in the division. But his LD and contact rates have both ballooned this year which has propelled his BA, and rightfully so. It suggests more is in his tank than is being inked in the box score and that might be because of PNC’s RH hitting treachery. (In contrast he only had a 16% LD rate in 183 AB July - September last year and now he’s over 28%).
I’m not so sure I agree with the type A player analysis but, even if he did become one we’d still have to offer him arb to get the picks and the chance of that is so remote it’s probably not even worth talking about.
So if he’s not a 25/30 HR threat in the NLCD, where will he be a 25/30 HR threat? Throw in his penchant for injuries, a poor glove at 1B leaving him at right as his only place to play, and, well, you get a guy who is probably better off staying on a team that has a big park in the NLCD. I just don’t see the value other fans do with him.
cecil - I’m not down on McLouth - I just want this club to rebuild and right now we have a player who is playing over his head (imo) that I think we need to sell on the high side.
I agree with McLouth. I was always high on Nate and wished he would have gotten more playing time two years ago. If Neal is content to hold onto Bay and Nady, Cutch could (or Duffy/Morgan) step in right away and spell McLouth if he were traded. When was the last time a GM here had this situation? Neal doesn\’t have to do anything. He actually has leverage. I do hope they trade 4-5 veterans and start a rebuild, but I am encouraged by reading that other teams are complaining about Neal\’s demands. They did the same with Littlefield and he eventually gave in. I don\’t feel Neal (or Frank) will do that. I am actually more excited this year about the deadline than previous seasons knowing full well the Bucs may not make a move. I do hope they trade Marte. Like Jake mentioned, our scouting staff hasn\’t changed all that much. Neal would do better to pick up a good prospect than hoping for comp picks and drafting the right guy.
I would be shocked if the Pirates keep Nady through 2009 and did not offer him arbitration. He is almost a lock for Type B status if he stays healthy, but I agree Type A is questionable. But he is young enough to get a multi-year deal from some other club after 2009. A multi-year offer is always more lucrative than arbitration, so I do not see any reason the Pirates would not make that offer to him, knowing he would get a multi-year offer and sign elsewhere.
It is interesting, but I was reading through the Comprehensive Trade Post thread over at DRaysBay and many Rays fans sound more than willing to trade some of their top prospects (Hellickson, Brignac, and/or Davis) to make a run this year. It will be interesting to see whether their front office listens to their fan base.
SI.com reports that the Cardinals might put up Colby Rasmus in a trade involving Nady or Bay, more than likely it would be Bay.
I’d do it. Bay is having a great year, but how valuable will he be for the Pirates past this season? If they can get Rasmus, he could play with McCutchen in the outfield through 2011 or 2012?
Brad Lincoln Has been promoted to Lynchburg
I am skeptical of the SI.com report. Top prospects like Rasmus are rarely, rarely moved. BA had him at #5 overall heading into this year and he is still top 15, even with a slow start.
That said, what fun is life without a little speculation? A good comp for Rasmus might be Jim Edmonds, though I do not know that he has 40 HR power. .280/.380/.550 with 30+ HR, 20 SB, and great defense in CF and the arm for RF. Here is a team that can score some runs:
C - Doumit/???
1B - Pearce/Doumit
2B - Freddy/Ford
SS - ???
3B - Alvarez
LF - McLouth
CF - McCutchen
RF - Rasmus
6 guys in that lineup with a shot at 20 HR (Doumit, Pearce, Alvarez, and 3 outfielders). Rasmus also hits 95 mph from the outfield with his throws. Hopefully he can pitch, because the team still will not win without better pitching!
Bay + Marte –> Rasmus + Todd + Reyes + something else. I just do not see it happening though, especially intra-division. It is easier to ship a prospect like Rasmus to the other league where you do not have to worry about him beating you up in front of your fans for the next 6 years!
Jason Bay with much better defense might be another appropriate comp for Rasmus. Why would the Cardinals trade a future Jason Bay for the present one? The only way I see it is if they go all in and try to acquire Bay and Wilson in some ridiculous deal.
But if I am the Cardinals, I offer Reyes and maybe something else for Christian Guzman.
Then I offer Chris Duncan for Washburn.
Then I pray Wainwright and Carpeter get healthy in the next month.
Anderson + something for Marte might be interesting, but I do not know if the Cards would give up that much for a LH reliever (even though they apparently need one). It would give the Pirates a more legit catcher than Doumit, even though Anderson’s defense is supposedly not great.
“We don’t have the depth to get to the next step with the group we have right now,” general manager Neal Huntington said. “How do we get that depth? We either trade prospects to get major league-caliber depth or we trade major leaguers to get the prospect depth necessary to take the next step.”
Jake, I found that at bucs dugout. What do you think about it? It sounds like he wants to make some type of move.
What could we get for Grabow? What about JC Happ-lefty starter who did a good job in a spot start against the Mets I think.
I hope Neil holds out for the best deal possible-I am moved by the fact that Nady wants to stay.
Bill
Billy Beane is racking up prospects. Blanton to the Phils for two good prospects and a throw-in. It is interesting to see how Beane is getting good value even though he announced to the world his intentions to rebuild. The Harden haul might be suspect (though I have heard some experts say Gallagher will win more games), but it is an injury risk. I read somewhere that Snell was mentioned as a possible target. This was just a writer making a story, but Snell\’s upside is higher than Blanton and his contract is more favorable. It may be selling low, but Billy Beane may be raising the value. I agree with Joseph that Neal wants to make a move. I think it may be for ML ready pitching. I hope it is for someone ready to take off and not a veteran who isn\’t wanted. Neal could completely rebuild the system this month. Yes I said rebuild.