The last time it happened it took one of the most respected minds in the game to turn this franchise around.  It took six years and in the end he angered many Pirates fans, wore out his welcome, and had to take a leave of absence from the game because of health issues.

His name?  Branch Rickey and it happened between 1950 and 1955.

What was the “it”?  For now we’ll call it “rebuilding” but it was significantly more than that as you’ll see in a few minutes.

Rickey inherited a club that was headed in the wrong direction - vets were getting old, productivity was falling fast, and the team’s winning percentage was tanking.  In fact, in 1945 the club’s seven-year moving average for winning percentage had dropped to .504 from .551 just seven years earlier and was about to go below .500 for the first time in over 26 years.

Something had to be done. 

Once hired, he immediately went to work gutting the roster trading vets for youth hoping to build a dynasty.  One of the reasons Galbreath brought Rickey in to rebuild the club was because of Rickey’s work building minor league systems, scouting youthful players, and expanding available markets. 

His work lasted five years and in the end he walked away dissatisfied and unhealthy, unable to complete his mission.  But the fruits of his labor were later seen in the 1960 World Series with players he brought in like Bill Mazeroski, Vern Law, and a youngster by the name of Roberto Clemente he picked up in the Rule 5 draft in 1954.

The negative side to what eventually became Rickey’s “seven year plan” was that the club hit rock bottom in the seven-year rolling winning percentage (just a .354 average winning percentage between 1950 and 1956 - the lowest in the history of the franchise).  It was also the last time in the history of this great franchise “it” happened.

The “it” I’m talking about is when overall club run production trendline (over the seven-year average) soared above the club’s seven-year winning percentage.  When that happens, typically a club is either winning or losing an extreme amount of games.  In Rickey’s case, it was losing.

In Neal Huntington’s case, or better stated, Kevin McClatchy and Ogden and Robert Nutting’s case, it’s also in losing.

Take a look at the trendline in the graph below to get an example of what I mean.  Be sure to click the image (784 K in size) to expand it to full size in another browser window so you can follow with me.

Just briefly looking at it you can see the two purple arrows on the left where the red yearly runs scored trendline trended higher than the blue winning percentage trendline.  Again remember, the trendlines are based on rolling seven-year averages.  Now look at the purple arrow on the right - that’s 1999 when the franchise started to see a significant drop in winning percentage while runs scored rose at a faster pace.

Looking close at the graph you can see where the two trendlines start trending toward each other which is a clear signal the franchise is in trouble on a competitive basis.  You can also clearly see that the last time it happened was in the five years when Galbreath was attempting to gain control of the franchise.  Amazingly, even during Galbreath’s sale to the City of Pittsburgh during the drug trial years did the trendlines ever trend toward each other.

Not until Kevin McClatchy and his group bought the team, that is, and the trend has been reversed for more than eight years now - longest in franchise history.  And as you would expect to see from that, the rolling seven-year winning percentage when McClatchy bought the team was .509 in 1996 and it now stands at .427 after 2007 - a free fall of 16%. 

That .427 is the lowest since 1959 as Branch Rickey’s work was starting to pay off and the franchise was turning around.  But realize that was 8 years after Rickey started.  Read my lips again - eight years.  And further, don’t forget Rickey had a franchise player on his roster during that time by the name of Ralph Kiner, a catcher by the name of Joe Garagiola, and a pitcher by the name of Bob Friend.

Not to mention a rebuilt club over the next few years with guys like Clemente, Mazeroski, Roy Face, Dick Groat, and Frank Thomas.

And each and every roster, year-after-year, roster’s significantly stronger and better than we are fielding now, lost nearly 60% of their games.

Now I’m sorry but I’m not about to raise the Nuttings to the level of John Galbreath, I can’t put Neal Huntington in the same camp (much less same planet) as Branch Rickey, I won’t put Jason Bay in the same camp as Ralph Kiner, and I certainly don’t think of Ian Snell or Tom Gorzelanny as Bob Friend, Vern Law, or Roy Face type of pitchers.

So who the hell is kidding who? 

The Pirates can sit back and talk all the .500 baseball they want but the bottom line is this:  we have got to rebuild this club and it’s going to take a lot longer to do than any Pirate fan can even fathom.  There is no other way to ever be competitive without it. 

And here’s the deal folks, the longer it takes to start, the longer it’s going to take to get accomplished.  Huntington/Coonely/Nutting are simply playing games with us with all the BS about making a run for .500, the “underachieving” rhetoric, and wanting to raise player values. 

It’s all pure BS because raising Bay or Nady’s stock price an unreachable 25% still isn’t going to get us another “A” prospect, won’t reduce the time it takes to rebuild, nor will it change the fact we are rebuilding with men who don’t have a flipping clue what the hell they are doing - they are all running the daily show by the seat of their pants.

At least Rickey knew what the deal was.  At least when Leyland wanted to rebuild in the early 90’s he was in touch with the game.  The only thing Huntington is in touch with is Robert Nutting’s bank account at PNC Bank and kissing Coonelly ass, it seems.

So you really wanted to know why I continue to write “negative” about my beloved Pirates?  Well, there is one reason why - I’m not in the same camp the average fan who believes all the BS. 

Now I’m going to continue to hammer these yo-yo’s until they start making some moves that make sense because we’re quickly approaching the draft, then the July trade deadline will be on us, then the season will be over in a hurry. 

And yet another year will have been wasted so that Nutting can make an extra mill or two.  Screw that.  I’m sick and tired of watching the players run circles around these Ivy League grads making a mockery of the franchise in the name of their taking home a guaranteed future paycheck. 

And it’s only going to get worse.

Now is the time.  The phone is ringing and there are opportunities, and I know that for a fact.  It’s up to Nutting to bite the damn bullet and let these guys make some moves for the future of this franchise instead of him standing in the way.

This shit is getting old.