Last year’s Sleepers and Foolers.

Sleepers

1.  Paul Maholm.

If ever there was a pitcher silently begging for a six-man rotation, it’s Maholm. In his career he is 10-4 with a 3.94 ERA over 18 starts and 115 innings on five days rest, including a 5-0 run (2.15 ERA) last year. Part of that is certainly coincidental, but surely not all of it.

If his back is healthy, he throws more strike one pitches by taking his own game management to the next level, he has a competent defense on the field behind him, and he finds his spots more often with his effective 2-seamer, he very well could drop his ERA to the low 4’s. Especially if he can turn a circle change into an out pitch against right hand batters.

2.  Ronny Paulino.

He made my fooler list last year and performed as expected. This year he’ll be the beneficiary of what seems to be a developing Paulino/Doumit catching platoon.

Paulino wails southpaws which could be the starter in close to one-third the games we play this year and, assuming Doumit gets the start in 50 games against right handers, Paulino’s average should skyrocket. With all the extra time sitting on the bench talking with the Pirates field staff about game management pitch-by-pitch, Paulino will come out of it a significantly better receiver as well.

If the platoon doesn’t develop as being hinted at now, Paulino should still climb up around .275/.325/.415 showing a bit of added power, but he won’t reach the .325/.390/.485 split a solid platoon would provide him. Russell needs to put this guy in the five-hole against southpaws even with his higher ground ball rate.

3.  Byung-Hyun Kim.

This is my risky pick of the year. But I think Huntington plans to use him as a right-hand specialist out of the pen and there he should do fine. In fact, if he keeps his line drive rate down to 15% or less, he’s going to surprise a lot of people. That is, if he consistently finds the plate which, unfortunately, is always questionable.

I watched some film on him over the last couple of months last year and he’s got plenty good enough stuff to succeed - there’s no question about that. I suppose it all comes down to the mental side of the game. After all, he’s on his last leg pitching for the Pirates, in relief no less, and I think he’s over the “I must start or I  give you crap” mentality. We’ll see.

4.   Jack Wilson.

He still smells a trade to a contender and is running on pure adrenaline instead of skills. I’d sell his selfish, big-mouth to a team in Japan for a song and dance if I could (you know, the accountability theme - “thanks for all you have done the last three years Jack Slack”), but the Pirates badly need his defense, when he decides he wants to play defense, that is.

Expect him to hit in the two-hole so his buddy Freddy can knock him around the bases. Maybe the fans will get lucky and see Freddy tee one off his head and he finally wakes up to what “team player” means? Still, don’t be too surprised if you see Jack flash early, fade until the Pirates are well out of it, then come roaring back. That, unfortunately, is his modus operandi.

“Oppps… there goes another one just under Wilson’s glove and two runs score” or, “that one is up the middle just out of Wilson’s reach and yet another run scores.” Hey, where is Brian Boehringer these days anyway? Maybe he could inspire Jack in the clubhouse (or out back) some?

5.  Adam LaRoche.

If this guy can consistently keep his contact rate at 78% or higher, he’s going to hit 50 doubles and 25 home runs while driving in a ton. Early last year he said he was out of it thinking too much, but rumor has it he was told by Manto to tweak his swing thinking he’d hit for more power. That never happened.

Before the second half, LaRoche went back to square one and talked to his Braves friends who took apart some of his video and found he was over swinging. He shortened his stroke and the next thing he knew, balls were flying all over the diamond. He enters this year knowing the difference as a more mature player.

But if the Pirates are somehow entrenched in a division race early on, LaRoche is the one who will suffer the most because he has a hole in his swing the size of the Grand Canyon that, for some reason, was rarely exploited last year. But the teams that needed too, did. If the Pirates are flying under the radar, he could end up with his first 30 home run .300 BA season.

Foolers

1.  Freddy Sanchez.

The funny part about putting Sanchez here is that I expect to see a 10 - 15%  reduction in his batting average but that’s still probably good enough to be the best the club has to offer.

The problem I see is that Sanchez seems to wanting to go yard more and more unwilling to spray singles around the diamond. I think he’s smart enough to adjust after a month of trying for the fences and watching a lot of flyball outs, but in the meantime his team will suffer too. But I’m not so sure that matters to Freddy in the long run - I think what he has in mind is a significantly bigger paycheck starting after 2009 as the Pirates will almost surely decline his option.

That is, if he’s not dealt in-season this year.

Don’t look at Sanchez’s defense too close this year because he really doesn’t have much to offer at second for a club giving up a million ground balls up the middle. But where else can he play now?

2.  Ryan Doumit.

If indeed the Pirates go into an honest Paulino/Doumit platoon, Ryan Doumit’s bat will tank over the season like a lead ball in water. That’s the bad news.

The good news is, the Pirates probably care less. And they shouldn’t. If Doumit can take one year and finally learn how to handle a pitching staff and perfect his game management, he’ll be the starting receiver in 2009.

IF he can stay healthy, which is a significant concern since he is going behind the dish again.

But how many games will Huntington allow the Bucs to lose in futility watching Doumit call for heaters in fastball counts, or not getting the black from the umpires because he reminds them of the Peanut’s Pig Pen, or just because Doumit’s not known to be loved by many of the pitching staff and there’s no telling how many passed balls he’ll see as a result?

Putting Doumit behind the plate is like wishing for a tornado to hit your house to see what it’s like.

3.  Ian Snell.

I really hate to put this one up here, but it’s what I feel. The entire baseball community is calling for Snell to have a breakout season, but I don’t see it for a couple of reasons.

One, he seems to be a basket case mentally. If the Pirates don’t end up signing him to a long-term deal before May, he’s very likely to come up with a mystery shoulder or back type problem forcing him to the DL. Think Oliver Perez under David Littlefield.

Two, while his stats say he’s continued to improve, my senses tell me he’s way in over his head. A guy can only be too lucky for so long. Ask Matt Capps.

Look for a mid to high 4’s ERA with less than 130 innings. If he does get his big money, maybe after he party’s himself out will he finally return to Earth and put up decent numbers in September.

4.  Tom Gorzelanny.

Here’s another reason to go to a six-man rotation - long-term asset Tom Gorzelanny. 

Too many innings of abuse, and too much luck last year, means a high 4’s, low 5’s ERA while he remains in the rotation. When he gets back from Tommy John in 2010, maybe he…

Thank you Dave Littlefield, can I have another?

5.  Jose Bautista.

Why is this guy even in a starting lineup in baseball? I know, I know - his stats continue to suggest he’s a breakout candidate.

Ok, when he hits 35 and you are still waiting, let me know. In the meantime, let’s hope he goes to a size 40″ glove defensively at third.