That’s a sad sight to see above. And the worse part about it is, it didn’t have to happen.

After the Pirates blew open the game with a seven-spot in the second inning off Oliver Perez, Tom Gorzelanny took advantage of the deflated Mets shutting them down to just one hit over five frames. 

Interestingly, Gorzelanny touched 89 just one time with his fastball in the game and routinely sat 85 - 86 mph, which was at least 2 mph below his fastball median for the year and 4 mph below his 2007 median.  In 2007 Gorzelanny routinely threw 89 - 91 mph fastballs, and in 2005 and 2006 he sat routinely at 92 - 94, sometimes touching 97 (if you believe the two stadium guns it happened on).

The chart below (click on it to see it full size) shows Gorzy’s fastball speed this year as measured by pitchf/x systems before his start Wednesday against the Mets. (Note: chart text says median is 83.37 but it was 88.37).

Now the Pirates have said that Gorzelanny is suffering from a release point problem:

“Whatever is ailing another starter, Tom Gorzelanny, it apparently is not the left shoulder that hindered him early in spring training.  Team officials are adamant that the primary cause for his wildness — 22 walks in as many innings, including seven Thursday — is inconsistency with his release point and other mechanical issues.”  Post-Gazette, April 26, 2008

I mentioned way back in March 2007 that Gorzy was suffering a release point problem after coming back from elbow discomfort and then, over time, I dismissed it. I dismissed it because when I ran video on top of video a few games after games I saw his release point rarely changed.  He was confident in his mechanics and it clearly showed.

It’s no different this year.  We can use pitchf/x to at least get a reasonable measure of his release on every pitch so I charted them for you to see. Here’s Gorzy’s release points for all categorized pitchf/x pitches in 2008 before his Mets start:

Notice he floats over the X axis like most pitchers do moving around on the rubber but is very consistent on the Z axis (Y axis MLB uses a Z for) hoovering 2/10″ either side of his six foot release point, albeit there are outliers.  

Now we often hear Gorzy is another Duke with a bit more speed, so here is Duke’s release points through 4/29:

Dang near the exact same thing, although a few more outliers on the Z axis, and Duke has just a 2.5 BB/9 showing he can throw, or get, strikes.  So why can’t Gorzelanny?

Well for one, he never could at the MLB level and as film circulated on him, the more teams learned to be more patient in the box with him. (Remember that as I’ll revisit that thought in a minute.) The end result has been an increased walk rate.

But what we’re witnessing right now is more than a bit of wildness. It certainly doesn’t seem to be a “release point” problem as we’re being told, it doesn’t seem to be a “rhythm” issue, and it doesn’t seem to be so much “mechanical.” 

No, as I’ve said since March, and warned since August last year that he was heading for trouble, it appears to be arm fatigue.

His back problems are a red flag pointing to fatigue (overcompensating); his significantly increased walk rate another fatigued arm red flag (lack of touch and feel); and the consistent, and significant, drop in velocity the most obvious red flag of the group.

These are atypical fatigued arm signs and the next to go, sure as the dickens, will be his legs over the year which are overcompensating now for his back and arm. Then with the legs, back, and arm all fatigued, the next to go is the elbow or labrum.  It’s classical… classical.

Now remember above where I mentioned teams are making Gorzy prove he can throw strikes more and more and that is resulting in a higher walk rate?  Bob Walk explained it best two years ago when he said something to the effect of: “Young pitchers, no matter how many strikes or outs they generate in the farm system, have to build their confidence up to throw in the zone at the MLB level because these hitters are significantly better. That’s one of the hardest steps to take for a young pitcher.”

And he’s right, it is. Gorzelanny doesn’t trust his stuff - that’s been obvious since 2005. He floats pitches all over the zone at times until he goes 3-0 and then pinpoints a fastball right down the middle of the zone at 90 mph. He knows where the ball is going, make no mistake about that. Now I don’t want you to think that’s always true on his change or slider, but it is for the most part with his heater.

Now that is what Pirates management probably thinks is the only thing ailing Gorzelanny - lack of confidence in his stuff.  And, imo, they are right - to a point. But where they close the book there, my book remains open because he now has multiple problems - not just the confidence issue. And if the Pirates don’t reopen their book real soon, the probability of Tom Gorzelanny hitting the DL for an extended period of time is almost a certainty.

I mean, they can’t expect a man who is not healthy to feel confident about his pitches. The two are like oil and water - they repel. But the Pirates want just that as evidenced by their repeated demand Gorzy throw the ball every five days. As I mentioned last night, Gorzy could have been skipped against the Mets and everyone else moved up.  But they didn’t.

Just like Dave Littlefield didn’t shut down Gorzy last year; or the Pirates wanted Duke to keep throwing until he finally ran out of gas in 2007; or Benson until he got smart and found a doctor to prove to the Pirates he was injured; and many, many other pitchers in our system over the years.

This is the type of bad process thinking this new regime needs to change. It’s been around old school Pittsburgh for decades and it’s raring it’s ugly head again with this new group. They pretty much demanded Sanchez play unhealthy; they are putting Gorzy out there every five obviously not 100%; and they are ringing up significantly high pitch counts on a lot of arms too early in the season. 

It’s deja vu… it has to stop.

When it finally does, then maybe our assets will become true long-term assets.

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Yeah, yeah, Meek and JvB threw a one-hit shutout over four innings against a team well in the hole.  Don’t count on seeing that in a close game. But at least it was the appropriate place to use the two men.

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It’s uncanny that teams refuse to adhere to advance scouting reports on Nate McLouth and continue to pitch him in, and he’s raking as a result, now up to 25 rbis.

And what a great series for Nady in front of his friends. Wednesday he had a 3-3 day with two runs and three rbis.

But we continue to play Bay every day as if he’s all of a sudden inhuman or something and his average has tanked from .280′ish mid-April to .253.

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Please someone rescue me - why is Bautista on the roster? Anyone? If there is a player needing release papers when Jack gets back, it’s Bautista. Meintz and Gomez can handle 250 AB’s each. C-ya dude.

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On to play the Nats who are white hot having won six of their last eight games, and have won four games this year in their last at bat.

We face Odalis Perez (2.00 ERA last three), Matt Chico, John Lannan, and a pitcher to be determined. These are the type of guys who typically handcuff us. Duke on the road is no sure thing, with Dumatrait who knows what we get but don’t expect a lot, Paul Maholm whose arm is probably feeling like it’s going to fall off after a nine inning, 99 pitch game the other day, and then Snell (6.97 ERA last two).

As for Thursday’s game, believe it or not, the Nationals are 15-6 their last 21 games against NLCD teams and the Pirates are (sit down for this) 5-21 in Duke’s last 26 away starts and 0-8 last 8 against a southpaw starter.

Ouch.

The Nats are wailing right-hand pitchers right now so the fact we’re going to throw three southpaws at them is a good thing until you consider Dumatrait is one of the three. But even he might hold his own the way Nats batters are missing lefty pitches. Until he throws his fastball, that is, as they are a fastball hitting club… particularly straight fastballs.

It could be another series of fumbles, miscues, and a ton of errors.

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Jack Flash back in the lineup next week? That’s what they are saying. We’ll see. Want to lay odds on who goes on the DL when he comes back?  It’s that kind of year.

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Big Brown looks pretty good even from the outside in Saturday’s Derby.