There is a very interesting debate going on at the Bucco Blog Forum regarding what the Pirates should do with the number 2 overall pick. Pedro Alvarez, the power hitting third-baseman from Vanderbilt is the consensus talent that fans seem to think the Bucs should seek, but some argue that the team should go after an impact pitcher instead.

I think Slider’s comment breaking down the top 7-8 picks from 2000-2005 gives a good idea as to the direction teams should go with top 5 picks in the draft, and explains why the Pirates have struggled to build talent in their minor league system. Complain all you will about the Pirates inability to develop pitching, but history says that maybe picking pitchers in the top 10 of the draft just isn’t a safe bet.

Slider’s comment got me thinking, and I’ve decided to do a little research. Below I’ve listed a number of impact players, first pitchers then position players, and their corresponding draft positions.

• Johan Santana — Undrafted free-agent, 1995
• Jake Peavy — 15th round, 1999
• Brandon Webb — 8th round, 2000
• C. C. Sabathia — 1st round (20th overall), 1998
• Roy Oswalt — 23rd round, 1996
• John Lackey — 2nd round, 1995
• Roy Halladay — 1st round (17th overall), 1995
• Josh Beckett — 1st round (2nd overall), 1999
• Dan Haren — 2nd round, 2001
• Erik Bedard — 6th round, 1999
• Joe Nathan — 6th round, 1995
• J.J. Putz — 6th round, 1999
• Francisco Rodriguez — Undrafted free agent, 1998
• Jonathan Papelbon — 4th round, 2003
• Francisco Cordero — Undrafted free agent, 1994
• Mariano Rivera — Undrafted free agent, 1990

Just 3-of-16 guys above were taken in the first round, and only one, Josh Becket, was taken in the top-15, while just 5 were taken in the first 5 rounds. Santana, Peavy, Webb, Oswalt, Bedard, Nathan, Putz, Rodriguez, Cordero, and Rivera suggest that the better bet is to look for pitching beyond the first round or two, and then hope that your scouting department (uh-oh) and developmental system (uh-oh x2) can find and develop the right guys from less lauded spots.

• Russel Martin — 17th round, 2002
• Victor Martinez — Undrafted free agent, 1996
• Joe Mauer — 1st round (1st overall), 2001
• Albert Pujols — 13th round, 1999
• Prince Fielder — 1st round (7th overall), 2002
• Ryan Howard — 5th round, 2005
• Chase Utley — 2nd round, 1997 & 1st round (15th overall) 2000 (Passed on the Dodgers for UCLA in 1997
• Jose Reyes — Undrafted free agent, 1999
• Hanley Ramirez — Undrafted free agent, 2000
• Jimmy Rollins — 2nd round, 1996
• Derek Jeter — 1st round (6th overall), 1992
• Alex Rodriguez — 1st round (1st overall), 1993
• David Wright — 1st round supplemental (38th overall), 2001
• Miguel Cabrera — Undrafted free agent, 1999
• Carl Crawford — 2nd round, 1999
• Matt Holliday — 7th round, 1998
• Carlos Beltran — 2nd round, 1995

6 of the 17 guys listed above were first rounders, which is a noticeably higher rate than that of the pitchers. Of those 6, 4 guys were drafted in the top-10, suggesting that it probably is a better bet to get an impact bat early in the first round than an impact arm, although the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Victor Martinez suggest that talent can be found beyond the draft, namely through scouting in Latin America.

Maybe the new Dominican facility will strengthen our Latin influence? We can only hope.

Between Slider’s research and the list above, I’d have to say that the Pirates need to take an impact bat in that two spot, and that it was almost certainly a mistake passing on Weiters for Moskos, as history says Weiters is much more likely to have an impact on the big club than Moskos.

Here’s to adding Alvarez, Beckham, or Smoak to our system in July. We can only hope.

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