Each year from 2005 on, Dave Littlefield announced his intention to be a deadline seller on the off day around June 13th.   This year Frank Coonelly held off to July 8th. 

From that announcement day through July 31 each of the years 2005 - 2008, the Pirates won just 47 of their 136 contests for a .346 winning percentage.  More interesting, they scored an average of just 3.9 runs per game, allowed 5.5 runs to score on average per game, and their expected winning percentage based on those runs was just .338.

In the remaining 447 contests, the Pirates record was 199-248 (.445 winning percentage) and they scored 4.5 runs per game while allowing 4.9.  Their expected winning percentage from runs scored and allowed was .457 (the equivalent of a 74 win season, year-after-year).

Now go get a cold one and sit down before you read this next part because it’s probably going to test your patience with your favorite team and players.

From 2005 - July 20, 2008, there have been 54 games played after the break through July 31st and the PBC has won just 17 of those (.315 winning percentage) having scored an average of just 3.4 runs per game and allowing nearly two runs per game more at 5.3.  That’s an expected winning percentage of just .294.

54 games, won just 17 for a .315 winning percentage. 

Think about that a second.  That’s 1 win every 3.1 games played – the equivalent of a 111 loss year.  That’s significantly below 2A/3A replacement level player production - arguably more like what we might expect if our last draft class played those 54 games.

Some might point at the schedule after the break which has been somewhat biased because just 17 of the 54 games were played at home and we won 10 of those.  If bias is true, then how do you explain the .189 winning percentage in the remain 37 games?  And even more improbable, the current roster which has been together since the start of 2007 (McLouth and Doumit were full-time players in just 20% of the games) has won only 2 of their 20 games after the break (.100) despite 35% of those games being at home.

That’s not just a run of bad luck year-after-year after the break - that’s an inbred culture problem.  Poor attitude, if you will.  In this case, the culture problem has been created by ownership’s refusal to spend money to give this club a jumpstart toward a competitive advantage. 

And the players know it more than anyone. 

Until the clubhouse and farm system is cleansed of all the virii at the exact same time ownership puts their foot down with a commitment to fund at least $80M - $100M per year for five consecutive years, Nutting and company can preach the ”rebuilding through the draft and trades with makeup guys” gospel all they want, but the virii will just come right back.

As it’s done for the last decade and one-half.

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Zach Duke pitched a good game Sunday despite the box score.  He took the mound with it probably 110 on the field and threw four solid innings before he ran out of gas and started to elevate the ball.  Then his soft stuff was crushed. 

It was maddening to watch John Russell keep Duke on the mound getting pounded during the fifth inning. First a triple, then a double that tied the game 3-3, a sac bunt moving the runner, and then a grounder for the second out and the runner held at third.  But he was so out of gas the only pitch he was able to command was his fastball and Baker homered on the fifth consecutive heater he saw (12th of the inning out of 16 pitches thrown). 

Still, the game wasn’t out of reach - it was just 5-3.  But Russell kept him out there and on the very next pitch he hung a curve into Holliday’s breadbasket and he went yard as well.  Five more pitches and a walk and then Iannetta somehow struckout to give Duke short-term relief.

But it didn’t last long as he was back on the mound in what seemed to be just 5 minutes later as Minty, McLouth, and Bay saw just eight pitches for three outs.  But that seemed longer than in the 4th when Duke had to return after watching his offense machine waste just four of Cook’s pitches. 

Duke came back out in the 6th and the Rockies continued their attack - a double, a single, a double, and then Russell came out with the hook with the game out of reach at 8-3.  The rest of the day wasn’t relevant because the entire team was exhausted.

Duke’s final line: 10 hits in 5 innings of work and 9 earned runs.  Oh, and a meaningless medal from John Russell for taking yet another one for the team.  Let’s hope his arm stays attached now.

Oh, and we were swept.

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With all the starting pitching problems, you have to be a bit concerned about Jeff Andrews being our pitching coach and his long time old-school ’run them out there, run up their pitch counts, see if they need duct tape or not to stay healthy’ mentality.  Every arm is taking a beating - every one.

How many will we finally end up toasting by the end of the year?

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Speaking of toasted arms, Gorzelanny pitched Sunday and managed 61 heaves.  He wasn’t sharp at all.  But McCutchen was back in the lineup so perhaps he just had a day off Saturday instead of a cautionary off day from the collision with Morgan Friday night.

And is anyone watching Matt McSwain down in Hickory?  He’s being stretched out starting now which is what he did before his arm problems and he’s showing us his live arm again - a 1.69 ERA in the four games he started, 9 strikeouts, three walks (which is a tick high for Matt), and just eight hits in 16 innings of work.  Batters are hitting him at just a buck-forty-three clip when he starts.

Kudos to the young man - it’s been a long hard road back.  I know his pop has to be very excited about his son’s accomplishments.  Just keep the arm attached Matt… don’t do too much.

Perhaps Watson will be moved up to Altoona and McSwain promoted to Lynchburg soon?

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On to Houston where we play three - JVB vs. Runelvys Hernandez, Maholm vs. Jack Cassel, and Snell vs. Brian Moehler.  With heat index’s expected to be 95 or better at game time for all three, we’re about to take another exhaustive beating if they don’t close the roof.  Interestingly, when they do close it, they lose more than they win.

Playing at near sea level is going to rejuice us I believe and I don’t think what is sure to become hurricane Dolly is going to get enough forward speed, or northern movement, to impact the Pirates plans Wednesday.

But the Astros plans might include a sweep attempt.  They have won 4 of their last 5 at home and guys like Tejada and Lee are white hot.  And even though they have rarely won at home lately against right hand pitching (4-9), they are facing JVB who I think pitches a bit tighter away from PNC but has been extremely unlucky (Pirates have won just 3 of his last 17 starts).

The Bucs took Hernandez to task early July but that was at PNC where we didn’t try to pound everything over a short porch left field wall.  Still, we shouldn’t have any problem with any of the Astros starters this series and should go back to our run scoring ways.

But will it be enough considering we’ve only won 17 of our last 62 games in Houston?

Should be an exciting “take the over” first game. 

As for Maholm, has he ever won at Houston?  I have him with an 0-3 record and an ERA over 14 in three starts.  And it is just his second start back from the break…

Then there is Snell who is going to pitch four innings of no-hit ball and give up 8 runs in the next inning.  He’s at least the most likely guy to take home a win this series, all things considered.

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Is this near Bay’s real value?  You decide - Holliday vs Bay.  Kershaw package or bust, I say.