What are you waiting for Neal?
By Jake • Apr 24th, 2008 • Category: Feature Story
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8.46 ERA in 22.1 IP with an 8.9 BB/9
If the near 300% increase in BB/9 over his minor league career numbers isn’t a big enough warning flag to Pirates GM Neal Huntington, and if a loss of 7 mph velocity the last 9 months also doesn’t warrant a red flag, then here’s a red flag that just might wake him up:
… the player’s don’t seem to be very happy about the way Gorzelanny is being handled.
It was one thing with Freddy Sanchez agreeing to play less than 100%, another thing with Maholm’s back problems, but what the Pirates are doing to Gorzelanny is outright murder - they are potentially taking his future from him.
And it’s pissing off a lot of people.
What’s amazing about all this is that Huntington and Coonelly started off their regime by backing the players - they allowed, even pushed, for certain players to do what was necessary to get healthy including surgeries that the previous administration had rejected or put off.
But when it came down to nitty-gritty time, they have backed into the exact same corner that Dave Littlefield backed into under Kevin McClatchy, and countless administrations in Pittsburgh over the decades - they want players to play through discomfort or arm fatigue times.
End of story - no matter how many fall in their wake.
That sounds acceptable in theory but, in reality, sometimes it hurts players more than it helps them. In Sanchez’s case he seems to have worked through his discomfort by playing. In Gorzelanny’s case, he seems to have a fatigued arm from overuse in 2007 and he’s only getting worse with every outing. That may lead to other problems because he’ll attempt to overcompensate - or just break his arm. In fact, in Thursday’s game he started exhibiting back problems as well.
I heard Bob Walk mention something to the effect that Gorzelanny is looking as wild as Oliver Perez did. But there is a huge historical difference in command between the two - Perez had a 4.3 BB/9 rate during his minor league career, while Gorzelanny had just a 3.0. Since the break in 2007, Gorzy’s BB/9 is 4.9 with a 5.52 ERA and his velocity and command has tanked.
Huntington needs to shut Gorzelanny down. End of story. Huntington may not find anything on an MRI to justify it, and Doc Andrews may not say he’s a surgery candidate, but some things are just plain obvious to the senses.
And right now the players and fans sense Huntington needs to do the right thing.
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After some quick research at Baseball Reference and ESPN, I decided to post a graph showing all 21-26 year old pitchers showing the number of pitches thrown so far this year. The top rows are pitchers who have thrown 23 IP or more, the bottom block is 22.7 IP or less. The yellow backgrounds indicate general warning flags or represent Pirates pitchers.
Miller, Billingsley, and Gorzelanny have thrown the most P/IP and Gorzy’s stats are by far and away the worst of the group.
I will also say that I couldn’t find any pitcher from 2000 on who has thrown 174 pitches in 7.2 consecutive innings (2 starts) or less except Miller and Gorzelanny (there are probably some out there but BR’s search engine didn’t find them for me). Kerry Wood and a few others did throw 140 pitches or more in one 7.2 inning or less start during that time. Throw in Gorzy being shut down twice in the last 6 months with shoulder problems…
Click the image to see it full size.
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Jake is a contributing writer at Bucco Blog. He's a bird dog (puppy) covering NC and SC (not for the Pirates), has kin on the 25-man of an AL club, and is married with a four-year-old son. His passion is the Pittsburgh Pirates - the team he tried out for. You can always find Jake hanging out at his personal site: http://pirates.mlblogs.com.
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Jake,
I agree that Gorzo needs to be shut down before his future is flushed down the toilet, but I was wondering what the best way for them to handle it is. If he is shut down, put on the DL, and we rest him till we think he can start throwing again, how do the Pirates gauge a comeback for him. Is it based on last years innings or some other factor? If he comes back in a couple of months and ends up logging half of his inning total from last year, would that be adequate to make sure that he doesn’t take a huge step backward from where he was? Just wanted your insight. Thanks
Mike - great question.
They can’t DL him without his approval so he and his agent would have to agree to him being shut down completely. That seems to be the most logical thing to do (60-day DL?) but doubtful it would ever happen.
The next best would be to limit his per-inning and per-game pitch counts in games he does start for awhile. For instance, in games he starts Dumatriat warms up early and stays warm and if Gorzy hits a magical number like 25 pitches in an inning or 80 in a game, or he’s obviously laboring, they pull him no matter what.
Another way might be to go to a six-man and use the six-day playing week to his advantage.
I’m sure there’s lots of ways I’m not even thinking about right now. I’m guessing he doesn’t need to be shut down completely (although that would be the best thing we could see), he just needs to have his workload reduced and then monitored a lot better than he’s being monitored now.
As for if he was shut down entirely and then trying to guage when to bring him back, historically pitchers with over used arms come back the year after so if he was shut down entirely until the break (three months), he could throw a little during his shut down in Bradenton and then start his spring all over again in late July being ready by the first or second week of August. Then in 2009 his arm should be back 100%.
But these are questions best answered by the researchers at ASMI the Pirates brought on as consultants. I don’t believe for a second him throwing 174 pitches in 7.2 innings is appropriate for a guy who has been shut down twice in 5 months with shoulder tightness and is now missing the plate like its 300 feet away.
Has any word from Gorzo himself come out about how he feels? Does he feel fine but just not seeing results? Has the discomfort he felt in the Spring continued? If he seems to already be changing his motion, that is definitely bad.
How much of the Issues pitchers are having have to do with the new pitching coach? Andrews has 21 years experience as a Pitching Coach/Coordinator, but all in the minors and the last 5 in the Pirates system which has had so many career altering injuries to promising pitchers.
A lot of players are unwilling to admit injuries. So I think the prudent thing to do is to at least skip a start with Gorzy. If he is wild and gets bombed again then it is time to dl him.
what we have not seen reported is his velocity in the bullpen and between starts. If his velocity is down then and control is poor then it is more evidence that staying the course by keeping him in the rotation isn\\\\\\\’t going to help.
Jake, you make a great point. I was skeptical when I started reading but you convinced me with the facts. However, if you are going to claim that his teammates are also angry then please back that statement up too. Otherwise, it becomes another rampant internet rumor.
Question for everyone. I live within the Pirates home media market. How do I get around MLB’s blackout rules so I can see games on FSN? The games are blackout on Extra Innings through Comcast and DirectTV, as well as MLB’s website. Basically, I’ve found no options for seeing the games and I live 4 hours from PNC Park.
Kevin, Jake probably is getting his information from his good buddy Paulino. Why any other player routinely ripped on this site would talk to Jake is beyond me. Paulino is the only player would wouldn’t be Class AA in someone else’s system.
Gorzelanny also has two very good outings to his credit, and he’s not said a word about being hurt. Until he says otherwise, run him out there and get him to work through this. If the Bucs shut him down for 2008 because he’s wild, then it will be back to 160 innings in 2009, so what do they really gain?
Great point Jake. I agree totally that Gorzelanny needs to be shut down. What I am wondering is why none of the local papers are pointing this out? When I read Dejan\’s article I about punched my computer screen, especially when he said, “What happened to the pitcher who led the staff with 14 victories a year ago?” Is he an idiot, or is he deliberately ignoring the abuse of Gorzelanny to avoid criticising the coaching staff.
Jake,
Did you catch this article about Doumit? It seems like I\’m not the only one supporting him!
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08116/876484-63.stm
There is some weakness in the Gorzelanny shoulder apparently. Pirates medical staff whoever they are needs to get him to Dr. James Andrews if they cant find the problem. You just don\’t go from 95 to 88 on your heat in one season without having problem somewhere. My medical opinion is there is something wrong with that shoulder ligament damage or a rotator cuff or some tear or something his mechanics are all the same as last year so it\’s not a mechanics issue. You can tell Gorzo labors when he tries to hit 90 on the gun forcing mad wildness. PIRATES DO NOT DUSTY BAKER THOMAS GORZELANNY AND PITCH HIM UNTIL HIS ARM FALLS OFF YOU CLOWNS!.
Does Andrews fancy himself some sort of New Deli Guru or something? This mind over matter stuff is wearing thin. The article today on Morris keeping the ball down in all situations is not only is irresponsible, but a nice way to tip off the Phillies, who I am sure can read for the most part.