One assistant GM told me back in late May that the 2008 Pirates reminded him of the 2000 club. Or, he said, maybe the 1996 club was a better example. In any case, he continued, their offense was the best he had seen in many years and held even more upside than the fans realized.
At the break, I quickly figured up that the Pirates were on pace to score more runs this year (793, 4.9 runs per game) than any other Pirates team had since the Arky Vaughn days of 1940, sixty-eight years ago (809). And it wasn’t a fluke because runs scored in the league wasn’t up which might have explain our increase.
Now don’t forget all the early season woes this club had - Sanchez didn’t even square up on a ball until July, Wilson was out for awhile, Nady was down here and there, Doumit took a hit and was out, and LaRoche couldn’t hit the side of the barn until July.
The AGM was right - there was more upside… lots more.
So when the trade deadline rolled around I knew what was going to happen - the Pirates were going to dump salary like they had done every year the club started to put things together like in 1996, 2001 in July, 2003 in July, and now 2008.
The excuse in 1996: lowering costs.
The excuse in 2001: lowering costs.
The excuse in 2003: lowering costs.
The excuse in 2008: rebuilding.
Right… rebuilding. *wink* *wink*
Say what you want but, with that kind of offensive output, the Pirates were at least two starters away and a couple of strong relievers away from a division title run since we knew Gorzelanny’s arm was probably going to be toast and Matt Morris wasn’t going to be much help.
Now the funniest part about all this was recent media reports wanting the fans to believe everything is peaches and cream after the trades, and all seem to point to Neal Huntington’s use of sabermetric analysts Dan Foxx and Eddie Epstein as if their stamp of approval somehow justifies the players received. Since Fox joined the Pirates after the season started, lets focus on Epstein.
If Epstein was so glory filled in helping Huntington determine what players to select in the trades, then why wasn’t Epstein able to help Huntington figure out which arms to sign over the winter since the Pirates stated over-and-over they wanted the roster to stay together and make a run for it?
Take Kyle Lohse - he signed a one-year for a tick over $4M in the same division and is now 13-3 with a 3.73 ERA. Or where was Epstein when the Phillies grabbed reliever Chad Durbin for less than a million and he’s tossed 61 IP at a 1.77 ERA clip? Or Ron Mahay who signed a two-year with the Royals at $4M per and has put up 57 IP at a 2.20 clip? In other words, there were hidden gems we didn’t even attempt to go after.
Consider this - all things being equal with the Pirates offense, had the team produced just a league average ERA over the first 94 games (4.25 ERA, 4.6 runs per game allowed), the Pirates would have been in fourth place in the division, six games out, with a .526 winning percentage (436 runs allowed, 460 scored; a 50-44 record).
That close. And yes, easily over the magical .500 hump.
So when Nady, Bay, and Marte were dealt, my hope as a fan went out the door for the third time since McClatchy’s group took control (1996, 2003, 2008). Instead, what we should have been doing is adding a couple of years to Bay’s contract and keeping him around, trying to renegotiate Marte’s contract over a three-year deal, and adding pieces to make a run in 2008 or 2009.
Not trading away our three best players, much less for risky commodities. If that’s all we could get, then Huntington should have refused to deal them while working behind the scenes building his farm through the draft and overseas acquisitions.
Still, this isn’t about what we could have gotten in any deal, it was a matter of ownership’s unwillingness to spend the money to keep the offensive machine intact and adding more to the kitty. The cost would have been high but the reality is, the window was open for a run even with all the question marks on the roster. The run production proved it.
Had ownership not said in December they wanted to see what this roster would do, it would have been different in my mind. The club gave them more offense than they could dream for but were weak in pitching which, of course, Eddie Epstein and Neal Huntington obviously miscalculated their evaluations on.
So am I now supposed to feel comfortable about Huntington and Epstein’s decisions in evaluation during the trades, especially done spur of the moment at the bell?
It’s become clear the new regime doesn’t have as good a feel for pitching as they do for offense and that, along with greedy ownership, cost us a chance in 2008… and perhaps 2009, and 2010.
So I’m pissed off I witnessed another salary dump because that’s all it was. The cards were on the table for more, but ownership refused to let the fans see them played.
mymrbig
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 12:14 am:
Thanks Jake, I understand you more. You had not yet said you think the team should have extended Bay, rather than trading him (at least not that I can remember). I still think you will be OK with the trade in the long run, but only time will tell. You are right about the offense and it is too bad to see things broken up. But other than Sanchez, Wilson, and LaRoche the Elder, the rest of the offense is under team control for a long time. I think plenty of runs will be scored in the burg over the next 5-7 years. Pitching is still a big problem though.
Paul
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 7:33 am:
Jake,
I certainly understand your rationalization and where you are coming from. This was one of the clearer posts over the past couple of months. I read this blog because I think you have a unique insight and it definately makes me think.
Credibility gets lost when certain players and people get bashed constantly. Give credit when credit is due (I\’m talking in general, not the trades) and your criticism will be taken more seriously.
Billy
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 7:36 am:
Here is my view on the trades.
The Pirates have no shot at being successful in the majors without a better farm system. You look at all the top teams in baseball, and with the exception of a couple of the big market teams, they all have depth in their organization.
That is the first step in becoming a successful team, building the farm system. Trading some of the better players on this team is the only way to do that quickly.
I think the direction of this team and the early moves the new front office made is showing that this group might be finally doing the right moves.
Signing free agents or dumping more money into Bay or Marte will not help this team win because they don’t have the other pieces they need and the only way to get them is by spending even more money in free agency.
In the perfect world, if the farm system had several pitchers who were ready to break through as well as some other position players, it would make sense to retain Bay and Marte and even Nady. But, let me remind you, there is nothing in that system that could help this team win. Nothing.
Trading Nady, Marte, and Bay gave the Pirates 8 prospects, several of which instantly made the organization deeper.
I am one to believe the trading isn’t over. I wouldn’t be surprised to see McClouth, Sanchez, Wilson, Adam LaRoche, and maybe a few pitchers moved to bring in more players for the farm system. Some fans may not like it, but for the Pirates to be successful, they must develop their farm system similar to other small market teams.
Dumping money into players who can’t win by themselves and not having enough money to bring in missing pieces needed to be winners, is not a very wise thing to do. It will only set this organization back further than it already is.
Bern1
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 8:14 am:
Pre-trades, I advocated exercising Marte\’s option (why not?), extending Bay, moving Nady to first base and jettisoning Adam LaRoche.
I hated the trade with the Yanks. We simply didn\’t get enough in return. The Bay trade was much more palatable: Brandon Moss looks like he will develop nicely (assuming he can field a little), and Bryan Morris looks very promising. Not sold on Andy LaRoche.
Having said all that, I am not convinced the trades were a salary dump. HOWEVER, if management doesn’t sign some of those top draft picks …
Billy
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 9:47 am:
How can you not like the Nady/Marte trade?
Tabata was untouchable just last winter and he is the 3rd best prospect in the Yankees system, probably the 2nd best prospect in our system now.
And, they got 3 arms who could compete for a rotation spot in 2009. Competition is what this team needs.
I think that was a very positive trade, especially for a rental player and a 3/4 outfielder. Remember, Nady is having a career year and odds are against him to repeat it.
Andy LaRoche was rated the 15th best prospect in the Minors beginning 2008. You don’t like that either?
Stuart
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 10:20 am:
Jake. Don\’t you think the Pirates got to where they are by putting band-aids over the roster since Barry Lamar Bonds left. I mean yeah they could have signed Lohse (I hope they make a run at him in the off season) but would he make that much of a difference with this pitching staff. Huntington just added 8 prospects that automatically fall in to the Pirates top 15. It is not what people want to hear, and i hate to admit it, but this club is being built to win in 2010-2011. How can you not be excited with a team with cutch cf, an. laroche 2b rf, pedro 1b, doumit c, moss lf, walker 3b, tabata rf, ss (tbd) with a pitching staff of hopefully Maholm, Gorzo, Lincoln, Morris, Scheppers. There is a lot of projected talent on that field. A lot of first round picks. Plus they will get high draft picks again next year, and probably the year after that. I myself am going through Jason Bay withdraw. But it had to be done.
Patrick
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 10:25 am:
Jake,
This smacks of hypocracy. You said two months ago that you wanted to shut Gorzo down, lose out, and accumulate draft picks. Now they seem poised to do all three, and you\’re whining about it. Make up your freaking mind. BTW DiPaoli\’s site is much better informed and accurate. Why can\’t you be more like Ron or Dejan?
SoCalBucs
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 11:54 am:
I am glad to see you are all excited about the Pirates being winners in 2012. But what Jake is saying is they had a shot in 2009. Do you honestly think the pitching will be as bad next year, even without the new additions. Gorzy will be rested and Snell will make adjustments. Maholm is just getting better, and Duke will improve (did you see him last night). Yeah they need more depth, but like Jake just said, pitchers like Lohse and even Karstens can be picked up in the off season relatively cheaply. The pitching depth they have now could have been gotten in the offseason through free agency and not by trading there three best players. Geez, look at the cardinals starting pitching, they are almost all reclamation projects. I am pissed off too, I don’t want to wait for 2012,2013. I think a run in 5 years is more iffy than a run in 2009 with Bay, Marte, Nady etc would have been. So next year when Gorzy, Maholm, Snell, and Duke have ERAs all under 4, and we are scoring 2 runs a game. Just remember we tabatha and morris for Bay, Marte and Nady. Everyone else would have been available for alot cheaper.
THIS WAS A SALARY DUMP!!!! The pirates PR machine did a great job saying we are not even close. Of course all us fans are so bitter and jaded we agree. That gives Nutting a great excuse to not sign Bay, Marte and even keep Wilson for a couple more years and not have to sign a couple of free agent pitchers in the offseason. Now he has saved millions and delayed the process 5 more years and can reap the benefits. Now he won’t have to spend money for another 4 years and can make more windfall profits. And don’t mention draft picks, he would have signed them anyway. I am sick of waiting. I am sure that 2009 would have been the best shot the pirates had in the last 15 years.
Jeff
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 1:29 pm:
ok we are all sick of waiting…but dude we had no chance to win a world series…maybe a run at .500, but playoffs were still very unlikely
eeee
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 2:01 pm:
A couple things… we DID go after Chad Durbin and he chose the Phillies mainly because our rotation was “set” before spring training started, yet he has been in their pen all year. Also, last offseason all you were saying was trade bay trade bay. Now you say we should have signed him to an extension and while I agree, hindsight is 20/20.
As for the rest, I agree with you we should have made a run at it. Sign a no.1 starter, a bullpen arm, perhaps a stopgap 3B you can count on to hit for either avg/speed or for power, and bank on a bounce back from Sanchez, Laroche, and the pitching staff all while maintaining some good health. For all of you saying we don’t have the money for it… Nutting owns a major league baseball team, I’m pretty sure the dude has a little bit of money. Plus, the more we win the more his club would generate for him. Few teams in baseball make the playoffs every year but if we had re-upped Bay, let Cutch and Alvarez fill in for Nady and Bautista in 2010 we would be in the hunt for the foreseeable future. That would be a realistically competitive team for around $70 million give or take for arbitration cases, hardly too much to ask Nutting to spend.
SoCalBucs
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 2:32 pm:
My point was that they should have been able to sign a couple of pitchers like Durbin or Lohse this offseason to get SP depth instead of trading bay for it. I agreed with jake that they should have traded Bay last offseason for 2 reasons. one, he had two years on his contract which means he had more value. I don’t believe any of that Propoganda crap about needing to build his value. He had a proven track record and was injured last year. Any GM with a brain knew he would bounce back. Second, I think everyone was suprised how well the offense has done this year especially the production of Mclouth, Doumit, and Nady. Remember they were all questionable this offseason. After their breakouts this year, it looked like the Pirates had the offense to contend. They just need to get the pitching better, which it should automatically with a comback of Gorzy, Snell and Capps. A bounceback of Sanchez and Wilson mean the offense woudn’t have regressed any in 2009 either.
Billy
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 2:39 pm:
SoCalBucs
I’d rather see a competitive team on the field for several years while producing top talent in the minors to fill the gaps after trading near free agent stars for even more top prospects that keep filling in the deep farm system. Think Oakland.
Reaching out to free agency with a team that is as shallow as the Pirates doesn’t make much sense to me, financially or as a fan. Pittsburgh will never be in the same market as the Yankees, so why even think about it.
They have to build this team utilizing a deep farm system. That is the only way to do it.
That was not a salary dump. It was the dumping of high trade value to start building the farm system.
Stuart
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 2:52 pm:
So Let me get this straight. There are Pirate fans that think the Pirates are one or two starters away from winning the world series. I guess maybe Cy Young & Bob Gibson. There is no way the way the team is comprised that they would be anything but nuisance to the Cubs. It is not NH’s fault that the Pirates Front Office for the past 15 years was ran by idiots. He didn’t construct the WORST minor league system in all of baseball. He is not the one who got nothing for I dunno a-ram, guillen, jason schmidt, and chris young. So if the pirates had a decent pitching staff they would be what Jake 50-44.. Great forth place instead of fifth place. WOOOHOOO. I couldn’t care less about the streak and finishing .500. I want a pennant. I want to see my beloved team in the World Series. They drafted the best player they could in the draft. They just got back 46 years of production for eight players to what amounts to a year and a half of (bay, nady, and marte). Just because a player says they like Pittsburgh doesn\’t mean they will necessarily sign again. Bay sure seems to like being in a pennant chase. If they continue the rate they are going they will be in good shape. If two girls cheat on you it doesn\’t mean the third one will as well. Have a little faith until proven wrong!!!
SoCalBucs
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 3:27 pm:
Hey, what was the Cardinals record two years ago when they won the World series: 83-78. Hmm, 50-44 is on pace for a better record than that. How do you know the cubs will be good next year, there second best pitcher is ryan dempster for christ sake. You build your farm system mainly by drafting and scouting, not by taking other teams cast offs. Let me make this clear. THE PIRATES GOT NO IMPACT TALENT IN THESE TRADES!!! Yeah, they got talent, just easily replacable talent. They could have kept Bay and still built their farm system. Really how did the Bay trade help their minor leagues, Moss, Laroche, and Hansen are all with the Pirates. I guess Bryan Morris builds a farm system on his own. OH, and when was the last time oakland won the world series anyway.
Stuart
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 3:58 pm:
Socalbucs.
O.k what did you say when the Pirates Got J-bay. Probably the same garbage you are spewing now. THE PIRATES GOT NO IMPACT TALENT IN THESE TRADES. I guarantee that is what you said. You probably said I\’m done with this team. Look at Tampa, Look at Minnesota, Look at the Marlins. That is how you build a ball team. By drafting and scouting well which you alluded to sir you can then trade for a missing piece. By the way one of your no talent acquisitions is throwing a no hitter.
eeee
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 6:52 pm:
Stuart, look around before you type. Are you trying to tell me Gorzo and Snell aren\’t at least as good, if not better than Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly? I think If they bounced back and with the offense we had this year, they would both be easily better. Add a Sabathia to be our ace and a top of the line setup man and yes, we could win the National League. All it takes is getting there and then getting hot at the right time.
Don\’t lump me in with the others though, I think the trades could work out as well as long as we stick to a specific strategy and get our picks signed. It\’s just that we are now looking at 2011 and 2012 instead of 09 and \’10.
Also, did anyone notice the lineup Russell sent out there today? I think Karstens knew he had to throw a shutout if he wanted to get a win.
Nichol
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 6:57 pm:
Jake, a brilliant man once contradicted you (see below)…oh wait, that was you earlier this year!
“The Pirates can sit back and talk all the .500 baseball they want but the bottom line is this: we have got to rebuild this club and it’s going to take a lot longer to do than any Pirate fan can even fathom. There is no other way to ever be competitive without it.
And here’s the deal folks, the longer it takes to start, the longer it’s going to take to get accomplished. Huntington/Coonely/Nutting are simply playing games with us with all the BS about making a run for .500, the “underachieving” rhetoric, and wanting to raise player values.
Now I’m going to continue to hammer these yo-yo’s until they start making some moves that make sense because we’re quickly approaching the draft, then the July trade deadline will be on us, then the season will be over in a hurry.
Now is the time. The phone is ringing and there are opportunities, and I know that for a fact. It’s up to Nutting to bite the damn bullet and let these guys make some moves for the future of this franchise instead of him standing in the way.”
Stuart
on Aug 6th, 2008
@ 8:01 pm:
eeeee..
so giving all those high price free agents the Pirates have brought in in the past. wait a second no they haven\’t. O.k lets see here..oh yeah..the last big stud free agent of any type to wake up the morning they were first eligible say “you know what screw 16 yrs of losing I’m going to go play for the Pirates. If you think for one second CC Sabathia would even consider signing for the Pirates you are out of your mind. Texiara is a free agent as well maybe we can sign him for $200 mil. Anyone can place fantasy line-up but lets try and live in reality. This is a fact. No premier free agent in the prime of their career will sign with the Pirates. Not now at least.
Billy
on Aug 7th, 2008
@ 10:49 am:
Anyone who thinks this Pirate team is even close to being a pennant winner are insane.
To be in the pennant chase, you need at least 2 top of the line pitchers. The Pirates have 0 and they couldn’t afford to buy any or they do not have the depth in the farm to trade for any.
Also, if I were GM, I would not think about signing anyone for a huge contract (Bay) in hopes of building a team around him. It should be the opposite. I would sign a huge contract player knowing the team I have is solid and a high impact free agent would push this team over the top.
You don’t build around high priced players, that is Yankee ball. You build around a team with solid prospects like the Dbacks, Rays, and Brewers. Their core is solid young players and they reached out and grabbed high priced veterans to help push them over the top.
There is no other way to do it and the Pirates first step is to start building up that farm so the system produces top players.